The Tesla light show on December 29, 2025, in Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China (VCG/Getty Images)

Tesla Q4 deliveries slide 16%, falling short of estimates, as yearly deliveries drop again

BYD outsold Tesla in battery electric vehicles for the first time in 2025.

Tesla Q4 deliveries fell 16% to 418,227 vehicles, falling short of estimates, while its full-year numbers dropped 8.5% to 1,636,129, marking the electric vehicle company’s second annual sales decline in a row.

Shares of the company rose 1.4% in early trading.

Meanwhile, Chinese competitor BYD saw its 2025 battery electric vehicle sales increase 28% to 2.3 million, overtaking Tesla for the first time on a calendar year basis.

After a record third quarter, in which the sunsetting $7,500 federal EV tax credit pulled forward demand, Tesla’s lower numbers represent a disappointing aftermath, wherein its cars and electric vehicles generally have effectively become more expensive, reducing demand. At the same time, CEO Elon Musk has been deemphasizing the Tesla’s EV business, focusing the future of the company instead on autonomy, AI, and robots.

Ahead of the results, Tesla released its own compilation of analyst estimates that pegged the Q4 numbers at about 423,000 and full-year deliveries at 1.6 million. The move was widely seen as a way to lower investor expectations for the quarter, since other consensus estimates by Bloomberg and FactSet were notably higher. Tesla also released lower-cost, stripped-down versions of its Model Y and Model 3, whose new prices are still more than older versions with the federal tax credit.

On the company’s last earnings call, Musk said Tesla is so confident in the future success of its Full Self-Driving technology that it planned to increase vehicle production “as fast as we reasonably can,” potentially reaching a 3 million annualized production rate within two years.

For now, Tesla has not reached its goal of removing safety drivers from its Austin Robotaxi vehicles, and demand for its vehicles is not there.

Rani Molla12/31/25

Rather than fully cracking down on scam ads, Meta worked to make them harder to find

In its latest piece on Meta’s scam ads, Reuters found that the social media giant didn’t just remove fraudulent ads from its platforms — it also worked to make them harder for governments and journalists to find.

Fearing that Japanese regulators would require universal advertiser verification — a measure Meta estimated would cost roughly $2 billion to implement and potentially reduce its revenue by nearly 5% — the company took steps to make scam ads less “discoverable” to “regulators, investigators and journalists,” according to internal documents reviewed by Reuters.

“So successful was the search-result cleanup that Meta, the documents show, added the tactic to a ‘general global playbook’ it has deployed against regulatory scrutiny in other markets, including the United States, Europe, India, Australia, Brazil and Thailand,” Reuters wrote.

Previous Reuters reporting found Meta internally projected that about 10% of its 2024 revenue would come from ads tied to scams and banned goods, though the company later said that estimate was overly broad. Reuters also reported the rate was double in China.

Meta created ‘playbook’ to fend off pressure to crack down on scammers, documents show

Rani Molla12/31/25

Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor who called Tesla “ridiculously overvalued,” is not currently shorting Tesla

Earlier this month, “The Big Short” investor Michael Burry said Tesla has been “ridiculously overvalued” for “a good long time” — and reiterated that message in a post on X on Tuesday. But the once prominent Tesla short seller isn’t currently betting against the stock.

I am not short
— Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) December 31, 2025

Asked directly whether he would short Tesla now, Burry replied simply: “I am not short.”

Tesla is expected to report a double-digit decline in fourth-quarter deliveries this week.

Rani Molla12/30/25

SoftBank becomes OpenAI’s biggest backer after fully funding $40 billion investment

SoftBank has fully funded its $40 billion investment in OpenAI, overtaking Microsoft as the company’s largest financial backer, CNBC reports. The deal was contingent on OpenAI transitioning to a for-profit public benefit corporation, which it did in September.

However, longtime partner Microsoft retains substantial influence over OpenAI with its roughly $13 billion investment, which translates to a stake worth about 27% of the startup’s valuation — which has been cited as high as $830 billion — as well as exclusive cloud and commercial licensing rights tied to Azure.

Softbank has fully funded $40 billion investment in OpenAI, sources tell CNBC

Rani Molla12/30/25

Tesla-compiled estimates show Q4 deliveries expected to fall 15% from last year

A Tesla-compiled average of analyst estimates pegs fourth-quarter deliveries at 422,850, which would mark a 15% slump from the 495,570 the company delivered in the same quarter last year, if realized. The full-year estimate of 1.6 million vehicles would represent an 8% decline from 2024 and the second annual decline for the EV company. The estimates are notably lower than the consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg and FactSet, which have been declining over the past month.

The market-implied odds derived from event contracts show that most traders think Tesla deliveries will be more than 410,000 but less than 420,000 in the quarter ending December.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Tesla typically shares its compilation of analyst estimates with institutional investors, this is the first time the company has shared those numbers on its own website. Tesla’s numbers include estimates from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham & Co., HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.

Actual numbers are expected Friday.

Rani Molla12/29/25

Cybertruck battery material supplier writes down Tesla deal by 99%

South Korea’s L&F Co., a supplier of battery material for Tesla’s “apocalypse-proof” Cybertruck, has written down the value of its Tesla contract by more than 99%, Bloomberg reports — another sign that Cybertruck sales are faltering.

The company cited changes in supply quantities, slashing a contract valued at nearly $3 billion in 2023 to about $7,000 now.