tech

Rani Molla & Luke Kawa2/11/25

Tesla’s stock is down 5% amid poor January sales, negative analyst notes, and BYD’s “God’s Eye”

Tesla’s stock is trading at its lowest price since November, down 5.6% today and 13% so far this year. That’s happening amid news that sales, rather than returning to growth as promised, are dropping around the world this year. It also comes amid several negative analyst notes, including one from Oppenheimer yesterday, saying that Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s bid for OpenAI is a “a distraction from Tesla’s core challenges.” Chinese competitor BYD also announced yesterday it will offer its “God’s Eye” self-driving system on all models.

Separately, Tallbacken Capital Advisors CEO Michael Purves is recommending an options trade targeting additional downside in the shares by the May expiry.

“The stock has just taken out key support levels and bearish momentum is building,” he wrote. “Implied volatility levels are close to the lowest levels they have been in a year, making options more affordable.”

Purves is highlighting the May $300/$250 put spread (that is, buy a $300 strike put, sell the $250 strike put), which, at the low end, marks a retreat of more than 20% from the current price.

Separately, Tallbacken Capital Advisors CEO Michael Purves is recommending an options trade targeting additional downside in the shares by the May expiry.

“The stock has just taken out key support levels and bearish momentum is building,” he wrote. “Implied volatility levels are close to the lowest levels they have been in a year, making options more affordable.”

Purves is highlighting the May $300/$250 put spread (that is, buy a $300 strike put, sell the $250 strike put), which, at the low end, marks a retreat of more than 20% from the current price.

More Tech

tech

Jon Keegan6/5/26

FT: Meta considering “tens of billions” in new capital to fund AI

Just days after Google announced a monster $85 billion upsized equity raise, the extremely profitable Meta is seeking to sell “tens of billions of dollars” in stock, according to a new report from the Financial Times.

Meta is planning on spending between $125 billion and $145 billion on AI capital expenditure this year alone.

Shares dropped more than 5% on the news.

Meta weighs big equity raising after blockbuster Google deal

Meta weighs big equity raising after blockbuster Google deal

Meta is supercharging its subscription businesses

The free-app giant never really cared about recurring revenue. Now, it’s launching paid plans for all sorts of stuff.

tech

Jon Keegan6/5/26

FT: Anthropic staff helping the NSA use Mythos for offensive cyberattacks

Anthropic’s Mythos AI model was deemed too dangerous to release to the public, with the company citing its ability to orchestrate novel cyberattacks.

And that’s just what the National Security Agency is doing, with the help of Anthropic staff embedded at the agency, according to a report from the Financial Times.

Only a small number of companies and US allies have been given access to the advanced model, which means America’s adversaries have not had the chance to shore up their defenses against the AI model’s new offensive capabilities.

The arrangement is especially unusual as the Pentagon has deemed Anthropic’s AI a national security supply chain risk — effectively blacklisting it for defense work — in response to the company’s refusal to allow its technology to be used for any legal application, which could include autonomous killing or mass surveillance. Anthropic is currently suing the US government to fight the determination.

US National Security Agency using Anthropic’s Mythos for cyber attacks

US National Security Agency using Anthropic’s Mythos for cyber attacks

Only a small number of companies and US allies have been given access to the advanced model, which means America’s adversaries have not had the chance to shore up their defenses against the AI model’s new offensive capabilities.

The arrangement is especially unusual as the Pentagon has deemed Anthropic’s AI a national security supply chain risk — effectively blacklisting it for defense work — in response to the company’s refusal to allow its technology to be used for any legal application, which could include autonomous killing or mass surveillance. Anthropic is currently suing the US government to fight the determination.

tech

Rani Molla6/5/26

Longtime Tesla bear JPMorgan upgraded Tesla and raised its price target to $475 from $145

For more than a decade, JPMorgan was Wall Street’s most stubborn Tesla skeptic, anchored by auto analyst Ryan Brinkman’s strict focus on traditional car fundamentals and near-term delivery numbers.

But JPM recently handed coverage of the stock to a new analyst, Rajat Gupta, who is throwing that playbook out the window. In a note Friday, the firm upgraded Tesla to “neutral” from “underweight” and raised its price target 228% to $475 from $145. (The analyst consensus on FactSet is $403.) Instead of focusing on the company’s struggling vehicle business, the new analyst is orienting himself more toward Tesla’s idea of the future, now modeling Tesla’s physical AI and robotaxi fleets all the way out to the year 2040.

Here are the main reasons for the capitulation:

Looking past the car lot: Gupta argues that Tesla “is at the forefront of physical AI, entering uncharted TAMs” and therefore “deserves the benefit of the doubt to be valued on LT earnings potential” rather than near-term speed bumps.
Unmatched vertical integration: Tesla’s control over everything from battery cells to custom silicon gives it a massive moat. JPM notes this starting point advantage is “unmatched at an industrial level scale” and “still somewhat under-appreciated and misunderstood.”
The AWS flywheel effect: Deploying Optimus robots inside its own factories “should not only lower COGS for the base automotive business, but more importantly, help validate the product at an industrial scale.” Gupta called it “a classic flywheel effect, somewhat analogous to AWS and Kiva at AMZN.”

For Tesla bulls who have argued for years that this is an AI company and not a carmaker, JPM’s sudden $3.9 trillion valuation model is the ultimate validation.

skynet terminator

Anthropic ponders self-improving AI

Anthropic says Claude already writes 80% of its code. A new post asks what happens when the models can improve themselves — and whether anyone could stop them.

Jon Keegan6/5/26

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