UBS throws cold water on Tesla’s “return to growth” this year
As monthly reports of Tesla sales around the world keep dropping, so do analysts’ estimates for Tesla’s first-quarter sales. Today, UBS lowered its Q1 delivery estimates to 367,000 from its previous estimate of 437,000. Last week, Goldman Sachs lowered its estimate to 375,000 from 400,000. Currently the analyst consensus for Q1 deliveries on FactSet are a bit higher at 435,000.
More importantly, UBS’s full-year delivery guidance for Tesla is now at about 1.7 million units, down 5% from 2024. That means Tesla’s expected “return to growth” in car sales is off the table for the investment bank.
“While we do expect the Model Y refresh (Juniper) to help, we believe orders are somewhat muted,” UBS wrote today.
As I noted last week, analyst estimates for Tesla’s deliveries this quarter have taken a nosedive recently after rising rapidly following the election of President Donald Trump.
Tesla has now lost all its gains since Trump’s election, trading lower than it did at market close on November 5. The stock is down more than 5% this morning.
