tech

3/10/25

UBS throws cold water on Tesla’s “return to growth” this year

As monthly reports of Tesla sales around the world keep dropping, so do analysts’ estimates for Tesla’s first-quarter sales. Today, UBS lowered its Q1 delivery estimates to 367,000 from its previous estimate of 437,000. Last week, Goldman Sachs lowered its estimate to 375,000 from 400,000. Currently the analyst consensus for Q1 deliveries on FactSet are a bit higher at 435,000.

More importantly, UBS’s full-year delivery guidance for Tesla is now at about 1.7 million units, down 5% from 2024. That means Tesla’s expected “return to growth” in car sales is off the table for the investment bank.

“While we do expect the Model Y refresh (Juniper) to help, we believe orders are somewhat muted,” UBS wrote today.

As I noted last week, analyst estimates for Tesla’s deliveries this quarter have taken a nosedive recently after rising rapidly following the election of President Donald Trump.

Tesla has now lost all its gains since Trump’s election, trading lower than it did at market close on November 5. The stock is down more than 5% this morning.

More Tech

President Trump hosts tech executives and their guests to a dinner at the White House in the Oval Office.

Here are the Trump ties among the tech leaders who had dinner at the White House

Many of the attendees have donated to, vocally supported, or even worked for the president.

tech

14h

Tesla’s EV market share declined to 38% in August

In August, Tesla’s share of the US EV market fell to 38%, according to new data from Cox Automotive reported by Reuters. Tesla’s market share fell below 50% for the first time last year, as competitors’ EVs began hitting the market. Now, as Tesla’s own sales slip more drastically than they had last year, it’s giving up even more ground. Tesla’s market share fell from 48.7% in June to 42% in July to 38% in August, according to Reuters. That slide has come even as buyers rushing to take advantage of the federal tax credit that ends this month provide a near-term boon for sales at Tesla and other EV makers.

15h

OpenAI now expects to burn around $115 billion through 2029 — a full $80 billion higher than the company had previously estimated, The Information reports.

Just how much is that? It’s roughly equivalent to:

Fortunately for OpenAI, which is raising money at a $500 billion valuation, its revenue is also growing faster than expected. The ChatGPT maker now expects to make $13 billion in revenue this year and $200 billion in 2030.

An annotated photo of who attended the tech dinner at the White House.

An interactive who's-who of the tech execs at Trump's White House dinner

The White House invited a gaggle of top founders and tech executives for an intimate dinner at the White House.

Jon Keegan9/5/25

Apple of my Eye

Apple’s latest phone is betting on looks, while Google looks inward

Apple gets a hardware upgrade. Google gets a software overhaul.

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