Picture of Elon Musk at Davos World Economic Forum

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What analysts expect from Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings

Tesla reports earnings after the bell Wednesday.

1/26/26 12:31PM

When Tesla reports its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings Wednesday, analysts expect its earnings per share and revenue to decline as spending grows from the same period last year.

After Tesla reported disappointing deliveries earlier this month, FactSet’s analyst consensus estimate put Q4 non-GAAP EPS at $0.45, down 38% from last year’s $0.73. Revenue is pegged at $24.8 billion, down 3.5% from last year’s $25.7 billion. Meanwhile, capital expenditures are expected to grow to nearly $3 billion, up from $2.8 billion last year, potentially pressuring free cash flow as margins compress.

At the same time, as Tesla continues to cut prices to move inventory, automotive gross margin will likely continue to fall as well.

On the earnings call, investors will be looking for more details of Tesla’s various forthcoming projects, including timelines for removing safety drivers from Robotaxis, Cybercab production, unsupervised Full Self-Driving rollout, and progress on Tesla’s next-generation chips. In particular, they’ll be listening for how near-term any of these initiatives are, after years of ambitious but shifting timelines.

They’ll also be paying attention to just how much Tesla’s AI ambitions might cost. Last quarter the company noted that capital expenditure would “increase substantially in 2026,” after already trending upward.

Rani Molla13h

OpenAI’s models are officially coming to Amazon

Amazon is finally getting in on the hottest ticket in tech.

After Microsoft announced yesterday that it has agreed to give up its exclusive rights to sell OpenAI’s models, Amazon, as expected, will start offering them to customers — something Amazon Web Services CEO Matt Garman says users have been asking for “for a really long time.” Some models are available now in preview, and the most powerful GPT versions will show up “in the coming weeks.”

This is a big shift in the AI cloud wars. Microsoft’s early bet on OpenAI gave Azure an edge by locking up the most in-demand models. Now that exclusivity is gone, Amazon and other competitors can finally offer them too, closing a key gap and competing more directly for AI customers.

Amazon Set to Sell OpenAI Tech After Microsoft Cedes Exclusivity

Claire Yubin Oh15h

Ship-tracking app surges as Iran war continues

As Middle East peace talks stretch on, with Tehran reportedly offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade and the war ends, the owner of shipping intelligence platform MarineTraffic revealed that the app has gained millions of new users since the conflict began.

MarineTraffic’s user count jumped to 8.5 million this April, up from 3.5 million a year ago, the cofounder of its parent company, Kpler, said in an interview with the Financial Times. Paid subscribers, often workers within companies and governments looking for more data on supply chains and commodities trading, rose 11,000 in the same period.

Kpler, which also owns shipping intelligence platform FleetMon, draws its data from a range of sources, including the Automatic Identification System, satellites, and more than 500 people on-site, like port terminal operators.

Per Appfigures data, MarineTraffic is estimated to have raked in almost $1 million across March and April in app revenue (through April 27), more than double the ~$346,500 from the same months last year. Across the full year, Kpler expects to earn between $300 million and $400 million in annual recurring revenues.

Rani Molla

pedal to the meta

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Meta could be getting ready to post its highest revenue growth since 2021

Meta’s outlook and analyst estimates suggest more than 30% revenue growth in Q1.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg visits U.S. Capitol for Senate meetings

Tom Jones21h

Google will supply AI models to Pentagon in classified deal, per The Information

Google has become the latest tech company to ink an agreement to supply the Department of Defense (War) with AI, having reportedly closed a classified deal that allows the Pentagon to use its AI for “any lawful government purpose,” according to The Information.

The Information initially reported talks between the Alphabet-owned company and the US government around two weeks ago, following the messy breakdown of the relationship between Anthropic and the Trump administration — and the rushed OpenAI deal that took its place.

The move has reportedly sparked opposition among Google employees, with The Washington Post reporting that over 600 workers signed a letter to CEO Sundar Pichai to ask him to bar the Defense Department from using the company’s AI models for any classified work.