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Elon Musk Gulf of America hat
Hats off to you, Mr. Musk (Jim Watson/Getty Images)

Why the proposed end of EV tax credits could actually be a big win for Tesla

That’s because vehicles assembled in America might be getting their own tax break.

Rani Molla

The $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles will likely be out by year’s end, according to a markup of a proposal by the House Ways and Means Committee published yesterday that’s expected to be incorporated into President Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill.”

That would seem like bad news for electric vehicle makers, who rely on the credit to subsidize some of the higher price of purchasing EVs, but maybe not as much for Tesla.

When asked about how rolling back the Biden-era tax credits might affect his company during an earnings call last July, CEO Elon Musk said something sort of incomprehensible:

“I guess there would be like some impact. But I think it would be devastating for our competitors and would hurt Tesla slightly. But long term, probably actually helps Tesla, would be my guess.”

He didn’t explain why that might be, but he might actually be right.

Tesla buyers are less likely than other EV owners to say they wouldn’t have made their purchase without the federal tax credit, according to survey data of EV owners by insurance comparison website Insurify this year. While more than half of Toyota EV owners said so, only about a third of Tesla owners did.

Additionally, the proposed legislation introduces a tax deduction for car loan interest for passenger vehicles assembled in the US, which is the case for Tesla. That could save typical car buyers on average $4,500 over the course of their loan, depending on the car they buy and the interest rate they get. (Or, conversely, much less than that.)

Of course, the same goes for Bezos-backed Cybertruck competitor Slate Auto, which like Tesla is also set to be assembled in the US. Unlike Tesla, its starting price of less than $28,000 is relatively affordable to begin with, even without the tax credit.

Tesla, however, has much bigger problems than the federal tax credit reversal, like slowing demand — as evidenced by declining sales, a week-long labor pause, and confirmation from Tesla employees themselves.

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Jon Keegan

FT: Meta considering “tens of billions” in new capital to fund AI

Just days after Google announced a monster $85 billion upsized equity raise, the extremely profitable Meta is seeking to sell “tens of billions of dollars” in stock, according to a new report from the Financial Times.

Meta is planning on spending between $125 billion and $145 billion on AI capital expenditure this year alone.

Shares dropped more than 5% on the news.

Meta weighs big equity raising after blockbuster Google deal

Meta weighs big equity raising after blockbuster Google deal
Rani Molla
6/5/26
Meta is supercharging its subscription businesses

The free-app giant never really cared about recurring revenue. Now, it’s launching paid plans for all sorts of stuff.

Meta AI logo
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Jon Keegan

FT: Anthropic staff helping the NSA use Mythos for offensive cyberattacks

Anthropic’s Mythos AI model was deemed too dangerous to release to the public, with the company citing its ability to orchestrate novel cyberattacks.

And that’s just what the National Security Agency is doing, with the help of Anthropic staff embedded at the agency, according to a report from the Financial Times.

Only a small number of companies and US allies have been given access to the advanced model, which means America’s adversaries have not had the chance to shore up their defenses against the AI model’s new offensive capabilities.

The arrangement is especially unusual as the Pentagon has deemed Anthropic’s AI a national security supply chain risk — effectively blacklisting it for defense work — in response to the company’s refusal to allow its technology to be used for any legal application, which could include autonomous killing or mass surveillance. Anthropic is currently suing the US government to fight the determination.

US National Security Agency using Anthropic’s Mythos for cyber attacks

US National Security Agency using Anthropic’s Mythos for cyber attacks

Only a small number of companies and US allies have been given access to the advanced model, which means America’s adversaries have not had the chance to shore up their defenses against the AI model’s new offensive capabilities.

The arrangement is especially unusual as the Pentagon has deemed Anthropic’s AI a national security supply chain risk — effectively blacklisting it for defense work — in response to the company’s refusal to allow its technology to be used for any legal application, which could include autonomous killing or mass surveillance. Anthropic is currently suing the US government to fight the determination.

tech
Rani Molla

Longtime Tesla bear JPMorgan upgraded Tesla and raised its price target to $475 from $145

For more than a decade, JPMorgan was Wall Street’s most stubborn Tesla skeptic, anchored by auto analyst Ryan Brinkman’s strict focus on traditional car fundamentals and near-term delivery numbers.

But JPM recently handed coverage of the stock to a new analyst, Rajat Gupta, who is throwing that playbook out the window. In a note Friday, the firm upgraded Tesla to “neutral” from “underweight” and raised its price target 228% to $475 from $145. (The analyst consensus on FactSet is $403.) Instead of focusing on the company’s struggling vehicle business, the new analyst is orienting himself more toward Tesla’s idea of the future, now modeling Tesla’s physical AI and robotaxi fleets all the way out to the year 2040.

Here are the main reasons for the capitulation:

  • Looking past the car lot: Gupta argues that Tesla “is at the forefront of physical AI, entering uncharted TAMs” and therefore “deserves the benefit of the doubt to be valued on LT earnings potential” rather than near-term speed bumps.

  • Unmatched vertical integration: Tesla’s control over everything from battery cells to custom silicon gives it a massive moat. JPM notes this starting point advantage is “unmatched at an industrial level scale” and “still somewhat under-appreciated and misunderstood.”

  • The AWS flywheel effect: Deploying Optimus robots inside its own factories “should not only lower COGS for the base automotive business, but more importantly, help validate the product at an industrial scale.” Gupta called it “a classic flywheel effect, somewhat analogous to AWS and Kiva at AMZN.”

For Tesla bulls who have argued for years that this is an AI company and not a carmaker, JPM’s sudden $3.9 trillion valuation model is the ultimate validation.

skynet terminator

Anthropic ponders self-improving AI

Anthropic says Claude already writes 80% of its code. A new post asks what happens when the models can improve themselves — and whether anyone could stop them.

Jon Keegan6/5/26

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