Donald Trump has won the election. Traders were betting on it overnight
Traders on prediction-market site Polymarket had Trump as a heavy favorite before midnight on the East Coast.
Donald Trump is set to be the 47th president of the United States of America.
At 5:34 a.m. ET this morning, the Associated Press called Wisconsin for the Republican candidate, taking Trump over the critical 270-vote milestone in the electoral college, the decisive moment in a historic election night. As the nation — and the rest of the world — digests the news, analysis will follow as to what went wrong for the Democrats, and why so many polls, including one notable last-minute Iowa poll, failed to accurately capture the mood of the nation. Indeed, on top of the all-important electoral college win, Trump is also on track to win the popular vote — something that a Republican candidate hasn’t done since President George Bush’s 2004 win. The Republicans will also flip the Senate.
Follow the money
One instrument that’s been uniquely prevalent in this election has been betting markets, as a swath of prediction markets on sites such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood (Sherwood Media is an independent subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc.) have burst onto the mainstream. Looking at the minute-by-minute data of those markets reveals that it took just a few short hours for traders to price Donald Trump as the heavy favorite to win. As midnight approached on the East Coast, Polymarket’s prediction market had Trump at ~97% likely to win.
Early results in Florida, though not a swing state, may have offered some clues as to the final result. The win in that state appeared to start the wave of pro-Trump bets, before wins in Georgia, North Carolina, and elsewhere cemented the position. Polymarket, which is technically not available to US users, has seen more than $3.6 billion in trading-volume “event contracts,” according to its website. In premarket trading, Trump Media & Technology Group, which was highly volatile yesterday, was up more than 34%.
Early indications for voter turnout in the presidential election are hovering around 64% to 65%, down slightly on 2020.
