Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump Holds Election Night Event In West Palm Beach

West Palm Beach, Florida - November 6: Donald Trump points to supporters (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Donald Trump has won the election. Traders were betting on it overnight

Traders on prediction-market site Polymarket had Trump as a heavy favorite before midnight on the East Coast.

11/6/24 6:51AM

Donald Trump is set to be the 47th president of the United States of America.

At 5:34 a.m. ET this morning, the Associated Press called Wisconsin for the Republican candidate, taking Trump over the critical 270-vote milestone in the electoral college, the decisive moment in a historic election night. As the nation — and the rest of the world — digests the news, analysis will follow as to what went wrong for the Democrats, and why so many polls, including one notable last-minute Iowa poll, failed to accurately capture the mood of the nation. Indeed, on top of the all-important electoral college win, Trump is also on track to win the popular vote — something that a Republican candidate hasn’t done since President George Bush’s 2004 win. The Republicans will also flip the Senate.

Follow the money

One instrument that’s been uniquely prevalent in this election has been betting markets, as a swath of prediction markets on sites such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood (Sherwood Media is an independent subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc.) have burst onto the mainstream. Looking at the minute-by-minute data of those markets reveals that it took just a few short hours for traders to price Donald Trump as the heavy favorite to win. As midnight approached on the East Coast, Polymarket’s prediction market had Trump at ~97% likely to win.

Election night Polymarket — Sherwood News

Early results in Florida, though not a swing state, may have offered some clues as to the final result. The win in that state appeared to start the wave of pro-Trump bets, before wins in Georgia, North Carolina, and elsewhere cemented the position. Polymarket, which is technically not available to US users, has seen more than $3.6 billion in trading-volume “event contracts,” according to its website. In premarket trading, Trump Media & Technology Group, which was highly volatile yesterday, was up more than 34%.

Early indications for voter turnout in the presidential election are hovering around 64% to 65%, down slightly on 2020.

Jake Lahut

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The UAE’s OPEC exit will hit the group in the barrels

After just shy of 60 years in OPEC, its membership even predating its status as a nation-state, the United Arab Emirates yesterday announced its shocking departure from the oil production group, effective May 1, as the knock-on effects of the Iran war continue to play out across the Middle East and the energy landscape.

For context, the UAE produces the third-highest amount of oil in the group, per April data and OPEC’s latest set of annual statistics.

According to the cartel’s 2025 Annual Statistical Bulletin, the OPEC group was collectively exporting some 19 million barrels of crude oil a day last year, with the United Arab Emirates accounting for some 14% of that daily output.

UAExit means UAExit

The nation, whose energy minister told Reuters yesterday that the decision was taken “after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production” and wasn’t made following discussions with any other country, made up a healthy share of the group’s total confirmed crude oil reserves, as well.

Of the 12 nations in the core group, which was founded by just five oil superpowers back in September 1960, only two (Iraq and Saudi Arabia) exported more barrels of crude oil daily, pumping out 3.36 million and 6.05 million barrels, respectively, each day to nations around the world.

For its part, the UAE said it will “continue its responsible role by gradually and thoughtfully increasing production, in line with demand and market conditions,” per the official state news agency. Clearly, the nation now wants a little more control of just how much oil it can pump around the world, with the UAE having to eat a large proportion of lost revenues due to its healthy abundance and OPEC restrictions.