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More extreme, more often: How global warming makes extreme events more likely

More extreme, more often: How global warming makes extreme events more likely

This week the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released their landmark report on global warming and its potential consequences. At a little over 1300 pages the full report is not exactly a light or easy read, but its conclusions can be summed up pretty succinctly — we're in trouble.

More extreme, more often

Of the many powerful charts and graphics in the shorter 39 page summary, this data struck us the most.

In a world where humans had never influenced the climate, we'd still expect to have extreme weather events. Heavy precipitation, extreme temperatures and droughts were all possible back in 1850, before our modern consumption habits warmed the planet. But as global warming continues, events that used to happen roughly once every 10 years become way, way more common.

With global temperatures now around 1°C warmer than they were 150 years ago, extreme precipitation events are now 1.3 times as likely as they used to be. Droughts in agricultural and ecological regions are now estimated to be 1.7 times as likely and extreme high temperatures are now 2.8 times as likely — and that's just where we are today. If global warming hits 1.5°C, 2°C or, in a worst case scenario, 4°C, those rare once-in-a-decade events come way more often, and with more intensity.

For more from the IPCC report, we recommend checking out the much shorter summary, or this solid write-up from the BBC.

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