A worker cleans the sticky coal on a belt pulley in Yuping Dong Autonomous County, China, on December 17, 2025 (Costfoto/Getty Images)

miner drop

This year was peak coal, as global consumption is set to decline through 2030, per new report

Falling demand in China, the US, and EU could offset growth in India.

Hyunsoo Rim

12/17/25 9:14AM

Humans have been burning coal to warm our homes, fire our hearths, and move machinery for more than a millennium — a relentless coal-burning habit that’s fueled much of the industrial revolution.

But, finally, it seems we have reached peak coal, with global consumption set to “decline slightly” through the end of the decade after reaching “a plateau” in 2025, amid rising competition from renewables, natural gas, and nuclear power, according to the International Energy Agency’s Coal 2025 report.

Soot yourselves

The agency forecasts global coal demand will rise 0.5% in 2025 to a record 8.85 billion tonnes, with the US providing the largest boost, as higher natural gas prices and a slowdown in plant retirements lifted the country’s coal use, breaking a 15-year decline.

Beyond this year, however, a pullback is expected, with global coal consumption forecast to slip by about 3% by 2030. That’s led by some of the world’s biggest users — most notably China, which accounts for more than half (56%) of global demand.

While the IEA expects China’s demand to edge down by less than 1% per year to 2030, even that modest decline would carry an outsized impact given its scale: the country not only consumes but also produces more coal than all others combined, and remains the world’s largest importer.

The forecast comes as China rapidly expands renewable energy capacity and the government pushes to reach peak coal consumption before 2030. Meanwhile, other advanced economies are set to see sharper declines in coal use, including the EU, the US, and Japan, where cleaner power sources are increasingly replacing coal.

Those declines are expected to offset strong growth elsewhere, most notably India, which is set to post the largest absolute increase in coal demand, adding over 200 million tonnes by 2030 as electricity demand surges.

Still, the IEA cautions that the outlook remains highly uncertain — especially in China — as a stronger push into coal-to-chemicals projects and slower integration of renewables could keep coal demand higher for longer.

Jake Lahut

PAIN AT THE PUMP

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The UAE’s OPEC exit will hit the group in the barrels

After just shy of 60 years in OPEC, its membership even predating its status as a nation-state, the United Arab Emirates yesterday announced its shocking departure from the oil production group, effective May 1, as the knock-on effects of the Iran war continue to play out across the Middle East and the energy landscape.

For context, the UAE produces the third-highest amount of oil in the group, per April data and OPEC’s latest set of annual statistics.

According to the cartel’s 2025 Annual Statistical Bulletin, the OPEC group was collectively exporting some 19 million barrels of crude oil a day last year, with the United Arab Emirates accounting for some 14% of that daily output.

UAExit means UAExit

The nation, whose energy minister told Reuters yesterday that the decision was taken “after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production” and wasn’t made following discussions with any other country, made up a healthy share of the group’s total confirmed crude oil reserves, as well.

Of the 12 nations in the core group, which was founded by just five oil superpowers back in September 1960, only two (Iraq and Saudi Arabia) exported more barrels of crude oil daily, pumping out 3.36 million and 6.05 million barrels, respectively, each day to nations around the world.

For its part, the UAE said it will “continue its responsible role by gradually and thoughtfully increasing production, in line with demand and market conditions,” per the official state news agency. Clearly, the nation now wants a little more control of just how much oil it can pump around the world, with the UAE having to eat a large proportion of lost revenues due to its healthy abundance and OPEC restrictions.