China is leaning on exports to shake off its economic slump. It’s not working.
With its trade surplus at record numbers, China is making a great case for even more tariffs.
China’s monthly trade surplus, the difference between the value of imports and exports, touched a record of almost $100 billion in June, with some observers suggesting the surge could reflect an effort to get products out the door due to concerns about the potential for even more trade barriers.
"Front-loaded exports amid rising trade policy uncertainty may have also supported exports on the margin, although it is difficult to quantify its contribution," wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs.
China appears to be leaning on exports as it hopes to shake-off over four years of economic weakness since the pandemic hit. The government has let the value of its closely-controlled currency slip by about 15% since the end of 2021, which helps to make its exports cheaper and more competitive on global markets. But around the world, governments have signaled their unwillingness to let Chinese exports displace domestic producers by increasing tariffs on Chinese products.
The size of the surplus is also a sign of the country’s economic weakness, as imports into China — which reflect Chinese demand — fell by 2.3%. By all accounts, Chinese consumers remain shell-shocked and uncertain after the pandemic, which was accompanied by a massive housing bust and ongoing wobbles in the financial system.
“We're seeing a very cautious consumer in China,” Pepsico CEO Ramon Laguarta said on the company’s post-earnings conference call Thursday. “The consumer is clearly saving, saving more than spending.”
