Lean and mean
OZEMPIC? NOW?
“We believe the demand will outgrow supply.”
GLP-1 use is still skyrocketing. So why is the business world talking about it less?
Everyone wants it. No one wants to say it.
GLP-1 agonists, a type of medication used to treat obesity, are big business and only growing.
All things considered, Goldman Sachs expects the market size to grow from about $10 billion now to around $100 billion by the end of the decade. Bank of America expects 15% of US adults to be on a GLP-1 a decade from now, up from just single digits today.
“There is a very, very significant demand,” Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen, CEO of Novo Nordisk, which makes Ozempic and Wegovy, told CNN last month. “So for the foreseeable future, we believe the demand will outgrow supply.”
Search interest for GLP-1 and related queries is still around an all-time high. Finally, pill versions of the drug type have shown promise in medical trials, meaning it could be accessible to a lot more Americans soon.
And yet, companies haven’t been talking as much about GLP-1s on earnings calls as they had been last year.
Why not?
There could be a few reasons beyond the fact that what companies say on earnings doesn’t necessarily mean anything.
While GLP-1s are a big deal, they’re not exactly new anymore. While many companies outside the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries initially mentioned how the rise of GLP-1s might affect their business, many seem to have acknowledged it and moved on.
Coca-Cola said it makes diet drinks, so weight-loss trends aren’t a problem. Danone pointed out that its products like yogurt are high in protein and low in fat. It came up on Walmart earnings calls but nothing substantial was said and, given the breadth of Walmart’s offerings, its impact probably can’t be that substantial.
Indeed it was always a stretch for consumer goods companies like Coca-Cola and Walmart to try and speculate about any meaningful change to their bottom line as a result of weight-loss drugs.
Even at companies that do make competing products, the effects could be muted. Johnson & Johnson said that while it’s not getting into the GLP-1 business and the drugs could negatively affect its MedTech business, which manufactures materials for bariatric surgeries, it might also help MedTech! People who don’t tolerate the drugs might try surgery, and the drugs could also be used in conjunction with the surgery, the company said.
Another reason for the relative quiet on GLP-1s? Perhaps AI is sucking all the air out of the room.
Companies only have room to obsess over one mega-trend at a time, and at this point in time that’s artificial intelligence, which seems to be turning many stocks it touches to gold (for now). And AI is much more broadly applicable than weight-loss drugs — and companies in pretty much every industry are trying to weave it into their businesses (or at least make a show of doing so).
Or maybe Ozempic’s inclusion on South Park — a common harbinger of underperformance — was actually a sign of everyone being tired of this conversation.