Business
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Jack Raines

Legal US presidential prediction markets are imminent

A little more than one month from the 2024 presidential election, it looks like US voters will soon be able to put their money where their mouth is regarding their predictions for this year's winner.

Kalshi's CEO and founder, Tarek Mansour, posted on X that his company had won its lawsuit, opening the door for legal presidential election markets. The ruling lifted the stay the CFTC had requested against Kalshi’s 2024 congressional elections contracts while it appeals a lower court decision.

For context, Kalshi sued the CFTC in November 2023 for blocking election market contracts last year. While Polymarket has thus far been the biggest name in prediction markets, with media outlets from The Wall Street Journal to Bloomberg citing its election odds, Polymarket only operated overseas due to US regulations. With today's ruling, Kalshi is well-positioned to take the lead in the prediction market space.

For context, Kalshi sued the CFTC in November 2023 for blocking election market contracts last year. While Polymarket has thus far been the biggest name in prediction markets, with media outlets from The Wall Street Journal to Bloomberg citing its election odds, Polymarket only operated overseas due to US regulations. With today's ruling, Kalshi is well-positioned to take the lead in the prediction market space.

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Tom Jones

Danone acquires meal replacement shake maker Huel for ~$1.2 billion

Very big things happening today in the world of nutritionally-complete products that taste like chalk, as Danone agrees to buy the celebrity-backed protein bar, powder, meal, and meal-replacement shake maker Huel for €1 billion, or around $1.2 billion.

In a statement announcing the acquisition, Danone — apparently the number-one yogurt producer in the US and the nation’s top plant-based food and beverage company as well — said that buying Huel will enhance its “presence in functional nutrition and extend its portfolio into the fast-growing Complete Nutrition space.” Danone, the parent company behind Evian and Actimel, also praised Huel’s “best-in-class digital execution” and fan bases across the UK, Europe, and the US.

Bulking season

Huel, a portmanteau of “human” and “fuel,” was only set up just over a decade ago, but thanks to its marketing efforts; a buzzy product range that marries on-the-go eating with nutrient-dense, plant-based ingredients; and a decent list of (mostly UK-based) celebrity investors, like actor Idris Elba and talk show host Jonathan Ross, sales have soared.

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Millie Giles
Slow coach
4h
US airlines are still doubling down on premium seats, as the K-shaped economy takes off

There's really not much room in economy these days.

United Airlines Boeing 787 Dreamliner Flight
business
Max Knoblauch

China’s EV startup trio have all become profitable

China’s EV startup trio, Nio, Li Auto, and XPeng, are now all profitable, following the latter’s Q4 results released Friday.

XPeng reported a quarterly net profit of about $55 million, compared to rival Nio’s Q4 net profit (also its first) of about $40 million. Li Auto posted Q4 net profit of less than $1 million.

All three companies being profitable offers a stark contrast to the EV market in the US, where Rivian quietly delayed its 2027 profitability target in a filing about its Uber robotaxi partnership yesterday. Lucid is likely further away, and last month cut 12% of its US workforce as part of its “path toward profitability.”

Still, it’s not all rosy for China’s EV startups, either. XPeng ADRs were down more than 6% in Friday morning trading as its Q1 sales forecast came in below estimates. As China rolls back subsidies, auto sales are slumping. Chinese retail EV and hybrid sales fell 32% in February from the same month last year.

9.3%
Max Knoblauch

As the war with Iran produces the biggest spike in US gas prices since Hurricane Katrina, car retailer CarMax is continuing to see heightened interest in EVs, hybrids, and plug-in hybrids.

“From Feb 1st - March 1st (inclusive), compared to March 2nd to March 15th (inclusive), we saw a 9.3% lift in page views for these vehicles,” a spokesperson for the company told Sherwood News.

As industry insiders recently told us, EV interest climbs when gas prices rise. That appears to be holding true even without EV tax credits, which the Trump administration ended under its new budget package.

CarMax also saw EV searches spike in 2022, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting oil price spike.

Walt Disney Chairman And CEO Bob Iger Rings Opening Bell At NY Stock Exchange

It’s the end of Disney’s Iger era (again)

Incoming CEO Josh D’Amaro is replacing Bob Iger on Wednesday, though Iger will remain a senior adviser through the end of the year.

Max Knoblauch3/18/26

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