Potbelly, the only sub shop brave enough to report earnings, is down 18%

Potbelly shares are trading down more than 18% on Friday after the sandwich chain with roughly 450 locations reported earnings Thursday afternoon.

The chain — the only major publicly traded sub joint, by our count — beat Wall Street estimates on revenue but issued guidance for a same-store sales decline of up to 1.5% for the current quarter. The reason: blisteringly cold temps and brutal winter weather in the Midwest, particularly Illinois (where more than a quarter of Potbelly stores are located).

Q4 capped off a fiscal year of stagnant or declining company-owned same-store sales for Potbelly, a steep drop from previous growth rates.

It’s hard to say whether Potbelly is doing uniquely poorly at the moment or if America is just more broadly out on hoagies at the moment. Larger rivals like Subway, Jimmy John’s, and Jersey Mike’s are all privately owned, with several having been scooped up by private equity in recent years for party-length sums.

Blackstone snagged Jersey Mike’s for $8 billion last year, and Roark Capital bought Subway for a reported $9.6 billion in 2023.