Many will have celebrated the Fourth of July last week with fireworks, BBQs, concerts, and parades… some of you may have even snagged an invite to a patriotic pool party.

If that was you: congratulations. Knowing someone with a pool is one of life’s great achievements, since you get much of the enjoyment — the parties, the made-up pool games with unclear rules — without any of the maintenance, or, crucially, the cost. And, in recent years, the cost has gone up a lot.

Indeed, with prices for pretty much everything soaring, it’s unsurprising that pools, as perhaps the ultimate in frivolous discretionary spending, have been no exception. In their 2024 presentation, equipment supplier Pool Corp. estimated that the average retail price of a new in-ground swimming pool in the US has gone up from $43K in 2019 to $74K last year — a massive 72% increase.

Deep dive

Those price increases appear to be flowing through to reduced demand for private swimming pools, just as the mighty American consumer is showing signs of cracking. In fact, people aren’t even turning to Google to tinker with the idea of getting a pool like they used to.

Despite last month’s sweltering temperatures, which saw more than 100 million people put under heat alert, Google searches in the US for “swimming pool cost” were the lowest they’ve been for any June on record. In fact, there were ~40% fewer queries than in June 2020 — a time when backyard renovations took precedence.

That slowdown in demand is starting to hit pool stocks. As reported last week, shares of several major pool companies dipped sharply at the end of June on updated guidance from Pool Corp., which predicted another 15-20% drop in new pool unit construction activity for 2024, having already seen a 23% decline from 2022-23.

Forecasts from other industry suppliers have been even more dire.

Taking the plunge

Pool designer and manufacturer Latham Group estimated that just 70K new residential, in-ground pools were installed across the US in 2023 — 28K fewer than the year prior. One research firm, PK Data, as cited in a recent Axios report, predicted that only 60K new in-ground residential pools will be built in the year to come... roughly half of what was managed in 2021.

The pool premium

As Luke Kawa summarizes: “if you wanted a pool, you probably already got one.” Indeed, the state of the US housing market today speaks to the trend more broadly. Now, after running the numbers on what used to be a value-enhancer, many homeowners just can’t justify putting in a pool.

Plummeting home sales have translated to fewer house-hunting instances where the inclusion of a freshly-tiled pool might sway a buyer. On top of this, despite soaring house prices, middle-income homeowners are more reluctant to tap into their houses’ equity to finance construction work, given that interest rates remain elevated.

It’s not just the price of pools or the price of borrowing that’s leading to consumers pulling back. Pool maintenance and add-ons are also notoriously expensive, with Home Guide estimating that, in 2024, diving boards can cost up to $800 and pool lighting up to $1,800.

Pool Corp. revenues from equipment and supply sales follow a similar pattern to the chart of pool installations. The company saw an impressive uptick from 2019-2022, almost doubling to more than $6B, but sales fell some -10% last year.

Swimming as a service

This summer is already seeing record levels of travel — especially around July 4th, with the TSA expecting to screen more than 32 million people from June 27 to July 8 this year, a 5% increase from 2023.

Indeed, per the WSJ, a cocktail of cheaper airfares, a rise in once-in-a-lifetime trips, and more Gen Z holidaymakers is fueling what could be the busiest summer of travel ever. So, with more Americans outsourcing poolside matters on vacation, they may not feel the need to splash out on what could be $70K to build their own pool.

For those not vacationing near a pool in the coming months, public pools have been an option for decades. But, those numbers have waned in recent years, as public funding has pivoted away from recreational infrastructure.

That's not to say dwindling public pools are destined for the deep end, though. Indeed, one UK tech firm has begun installing small data centers under local pools (rather than submerging them in the ocean, per Microsoft’s tactic) to cool down hardware and save on pool heating costs in one fell swoop. At surface level, it seems to be working: in January, the company raised £200m ($255M) to heat “hundreds” of swimming pools.

Today, soaring costs mean that, for a lot of Americans, getting their own pool remains a mirage. Tomorrow, who knows — the tech boom could see pools become cost-effective solutions to cool our own mini backyard data centers. Until then, though, there's always your neighbor's Slip 'N Slide and a dream.