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The slop bowl recession just sent Chipotle’s stock cratering

Chipotle dropped 18% yesterday, and its woes weighed on the wider slop bowl complex, dragging Cava and Sweetgreen down, too.

Claire Yubin Oh

For a long time, the slop bowl and burrito scene has been a gold mine for Chipotle. But now, with competition rising and wallets getting lighter, consumers are turning away from Chipotle’s burritos and bowls.

The company posted just 0.3% growth in its same-store sales yesterday, while simultaneously cutting its outlook for the full year: the chain now expects sales to fall in the “low single-digit” percentages for this year. That news not only burned Chipotle itself, which sank 18%, but also hurt rival bowl sellers Cava and Sweetgreen, which fell 11% and 10% as of yesterday’s close, respectively.

How long such a downturn will last is hard to tell — we’ll hear from Cava and Sweetgreen on November 4 and 6 about how their sales are faring — but with comparable-store sales growth dipping below zero for two of the three companies this year, it’s hard to come to any other conclusion than: we are in a slop bowl recession. Indeed, if you were to subtract inflation from each of these companies’ growth rates, they’d all be well in the red.

Not very bowl-ish

That continued drop comes in stark contrast to fast-casual counterparts Shake Shack and Burger King owner Restaurant Brands International, which gained on Thursday after posting better-than-expected growth in established stores, despite facing the same consumer challenges.

Per Chipotle’s latest earnings call, the deciding factor might have been the youngsters — with the CEO Scott Boatwright commenting that customers in their late 20s and early 30s are “particularly challenged” due to unemployment, student loan debt, and slower wage growth.

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Shares of eBay fell as much as 10.5% in premarket trading on Thursday morning after the company gave a lower-than-expected profit forecast for the important holiday shopping season.

The e-commerce giant reported solid numbers for the third quarter on Wednesday, with revenue up 9% as reported to $2.8 billion and gross merchandise volume rising 10% to $20.1 billion, topping the average analyst forecast of $19.4 billion, per Bloomberg.

However, concerns about the future somewhat overshadowed these results.

eBay outlined its profit outlook for the period ending in December to $1.31 to $1.36 a share, with revenue at $2.83 billion to $2.89 billion. According to Bloomberg-compiled data, this broadly matches Wall Street’s estimates for the top line, but misses on the bottom line, with analysts forecasting EPS to come in at $1.39 — suggesting the company expects some further margin pressure.

The company has been facing macroeconomic challenges since the US ended the de minimis tariff exemption in late August, with the online marketplace reliant on shipments. One small silver lining? CFO Peggy Alford highlighted a “less durable trend” on a post-earnings call: that as commodity prices for precious metals boomed, demand for bullion and collectible coins on eBay spiked.

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Premium seats help push airlines higher following third-quarter results

Shares of American Airlines are climbing toward the carrier’s best trading day since August 12, when ultra-budget rival Spirit issued its initial warning about its ability to survive. American’s shares are up more than 7% on Friday afternoon.

Investors’ optimism comes a day after American posted a better-than-expected full-year earnings forecast. In a call with investors, American said that it’s ramping up its premium cabin offerings.

“Our ability to grow capacity in premium markets will be further supported as we take delivery of new aircraft and reconfigure our existing fleet. These efforts will allow us to grow our premium seats at nearly two times the rate of main cabin seats,” CEO Robert Isom said. American CFO Devin May said that nose-to-tail retrofits of certain wide-body jets will bump the number of premium seats available on those planes by 25%.

Extra legroom has been a boon for major carriers, particularly this quarter. Delta Air Lines said its premium product revenue grew 9% in Q3, compared to a 4% drop in economy seat revenue. Similarly, United Airlines said its premium revenue grew 6%, outpacing economy. Shares of both airlines were up more than 3% on Friday.

Carriers with less exposure to first- and business-class tickets like Southwest Airlines and JetBlue didn’t see the same amount of momentum on the day.