Is the era of revenge travel over?

Remember those hazy days when we first started to emerge from the pandemic? When borders started to soften, authorities cautiously looked to ease international travel restrictions, and you (and almost everyone you knew) swore never to take the ability to leave your house, state, or nation for granted ever again?

The rush of people eager to book trips quickly morphed into a trend known as “revenge travel,” with consumers digging deep into their COVID-boosted savings to splurge on cruises, flights, and hotels. That desire to get away has now lasted as long as the pandemic itself, as America continues to rediscover its sense of wanderlust.

In fact, earlier this year, more Americans than ever were planning international travel, according to data from The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Survey. In February, a record 21.8% of Americans intended on holidaying abroad within the next 6 months… perhaps with an eye on joining the throngs of tourists in summer hotspots like Barcelona or Santorini.

But now, a few years and some vacations later, travel companies are starting to sound the alarm about an apparent slowdown in the industry.

Taking a break?

Earlier this month, Airbnb shares slipped after the company delivered a somewhat gloomy outlook on the state of travel, as US demand faltered and the window between customers booking and taking trips narrowed. Ryanair issued a similarly subdued outlook, and Expedia Group, the company behind a range of online aggregators like Expedia itself and Hotels.com, was also suffering from “a slowdown in travel demand, consistent with recent commentary from others”, per the company’s CFO.

It might be a tricky idea to get our heads around at this time of year, when social media feeds are flooded with envy-inducing poolside or beachside snaps, but such comments would suggest that the era of “revenge travel” might be coming to an end. The sentiment is even harder to process when you look at passenger data showing millions of Americans jetting off every single month; luggage sales bouncing back strongly; and a flurry of headlines like “Europe Has a New Economic Engine: American Tourists”.

Globetrotters

As of July, over 44 million US passengers had departed from American airports on international flights in 2024, up ~10% on last year’s Jan-Jul tally, and 43% on the same period in 2022. While it’s obviously difficult to nail down the proportion of those flights that were for pleasure rather than business — corporate trips have reportedly made a comeback, just a little slower than vacations — it’s fair to assume that the bulk of the ~16 million passengers who took off in June and July were summer-season holidaymakers.

It’s not just stateside travelers who are getting back out there either: a recent report from the UN revealed that international tourism hit 97% of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter, as people around the world also looked to make up for lost time.

So, it seems that there’s a schism between what some travel companies are saying and what some of the data’s showing, at least for now.

However, whatever the shorter term fluctuations and trends in the travel world, zooming out a little further shows that more Americans have been taking the necessary steps to ensure that they can see more of the world… whether they’re doing so with a vengeance or not.

According to the State Department, only 5% of Americans had a valid passport back in 1990. Just over 30 years later, that figure reportedly reached almost 50%, with a whopping 160.7 million US passports in circulation in 2023. While much of that increase might be attributed to factors like the rise of budget airlines, or a law change in 2007 that meant you needed a passport to get into countries like Mexico and Canada, it also reflects the enduring experience economy and the growing modern American urge to see the world beyond the States.

In the short-term, maybe the post-pandemic travel boom is starting to lose a little steam, but in the long-run, America’s appetite to see the world seems to be only increasing. Revenge travel is just travel.