Winnebago sinks as motor home demand hits a pothole

A struggling RV industry is sometimes viewed as a recession indicator.

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RV maker Winnebago on Thursday posted its preliminary third-quarter results, and they’re not great. The company expects sales to reach $775 million, below analyst estimates of $810 million. Winnebago’s guidance has adjusted earnings per share of between $0.75 and $0.85, significantly under the $1.37 Wall Street had penciled in.

Winnebago shares sank on the report and were down about 5% midday Thursday.

“While market pressures have been observed across our portfolio, they have been most acute in our Winnebago Motorhomes business unit,” CEO Michael Happe said. According to Happe, the company will aggressively modify its production schedules and adjust its headcount. Winnebago has already performed three layoffs in the past 12 months.

A slumping RV industry has historically tracked with recessions, and some believe it to be a strong economic bellwether. The theory goes that buying an RV is one of the most crystallized examples of “having extra cash and feelin’ good.” Therefore, when RV sales are sinking, times are bad.

It’s a solid hypothesis, though it’s probably not the leading indicator some — including the RV industry — might think: the US economy has seen a long swing away from goods and toward services.

Winnebago rival and Airstream maker Thor saw stronger results in its earnings report on Wednesday, posting better-than-expected earnings and revenue. Still, the company is laying off 570 people this month.

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Shares of eBay fell as much as 10.5% in premarket trading on Thursday morning after the company gave a lower-than-expected profit forecast for the important holiday shopping season.

The e-commerce giant reported solid numbers for the third quarter on Wednesday, with revenue up 9% as reported to $2.8 billion and gross merchandise volume rising 10% to $20.1 billion, topping the average analyst forecast of $19.4 billion, per Bloomberg.

However, concerns about the future somewhat overshadowed these results.

eBay outlined its profit outlook for the period ending in December to $1.31 to $1.36 a share, with revenue at $2.83 billion to $2.89 billion. According to Bloomberg-compiled data, this broadly matches Wall Street’s estimates for the top line, but misses on the bottom line, with analysts forecasting EPS to come in at $1.39 — suggesting the company expects some further margin pressure.

The company has been facing macroeconomic challenges since the US ended the de minimis tariff exemption in late August, with the online marketplace reliant on shipments. One small silver lining? CFO Peggy Alford highlighted a “less durable trend” on a post-earnings call: that as commodity prices for precious metals boomed, demand for bullion and collectible coins on eBay spiked.