Bernstein analyst says “bitcoin bear case is the weakest in its history,” maintains $150,000 price target
Another analyst noted that at a price level of $70,000, 9.3 million bitcoin are now underwater, the highest level since January 2023.
Bitcoin regained some ground over the weekend, pushing past $72,000, but dropped back below $70,000 on Monday morning. The asset is down over 3% in the past 24 hours.
Last week, was a bloodbath for bitcoin that saw it drop to the $63,000 level, its lowest price since October 2024.
Yet even as crypto investors remain rattled and cautious, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani reiterated his $150,000 bitcoin price target for 2026, saying in a February 9 note that what we’re experiencing is “the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history.”
Chhugani said that the current bitcoin price action “is a mere crisis of confidence.”
“Imagine when everything is lining up — Bitcoin President, ETFs, institutional adoption and loudest cheerleader with skin in the game (Strategy, BlackRock et al), Bitcoin’s retail community manufactures a self-imposed crisis. Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel,” he wrote.
Last week, amid bitcoin’s crash, Chhugani wrote that bitcoin would “bottom out around its last cycle highs ~60K range,” but predicted a reversal in the first half of 2026, leading to the asset’s “most consequential cycle.”
Crypto liquidations also declined to $344 million over the past 24 hours, an improvement from February 6, when they reached $2.42 billion, with $1.26 billion in bitcoin liquidations, according to CoinGlass.
Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs recorded $318 million in outflows last week, an improvement from the $1.49 billion exodus the week prior, SoSoValue data shows.
Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said that ETF flow data remains the primary signal to monitor, with sustained outflows confirming that institutional de-leveraging is still underway.
“A stabilization, even without inflows, would mark an important change in regime,” he said.
Misir added that the market is now operating within “a clearly defined supply battleground,” with downside protection in the low-$60,000s and heavy resistance forming near $80,000.
“Long-term holder data offers a clearer map of the battlefield. The LTH cost-basis heatmap shows dense accumulation in the low-$60Ks, forming the most significant structural support zone. Above, supply thickens sharply near $80K, where distribution remains heavy and recovery attempts have stalled. This range now defines the market’s near-term structure,” he said.
Misir noted that the pace of decline has been steady rather than disorderly, averaging approximately $45 billion per day over the past 22 days.
He added that, at the $70,000 level, 9.3 million bitcoin are underwater, the highest level since January 2023. “This marks a significant psychological threshold, as a large cohort of late-cycle buyers now sit at a loss,” he said.
