Bernstein analyst says bitcoin could bottom out at $60,000, but expects its “most consequential cycle” after that
“This is not a ‘bull market correction’ or ‘a dip.’ It is a full-bore, 2022-like, Leonardo-DiCaprio-in-The-Revenant-style crypto winter,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan wrote.
Bitcoin has steadied, holding above $78,000 following its weekend bloodbath, but it’s still down more than 10% in the past week as sentiment remains cautious.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote that we may still be in a short-term crypto bear cycle, but he anticipates a reversal most likely in the first half of 2026, “leading to Bitcoin bottoming out around its last cycle highs ~60K range.”
“We expect the reversal to be swift and setting a new solid higher base for what could be the most consequential cycle for Bitcoin and potentially lay the foundation for the Bitcoin sovereign cycle,” Chhugani wrote in a February 2 note.
He added that the usual reaction following a crash such as last weekend’s is to “see this as another Bitcoin cycle peak and move on from digital assets,” but “the macro-geopolitical setup and the U.S. institutional alignment suggests this may be the final opportunity before Bitcoin’s elevation as a sovereign asset.”
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan wrote in a February 2 note that “this is not a ‘bull market correction’ or ‘a dip.’ It is a full-bore, 2022-like, Leonardo-DiCaprio-in-The-Revenant-style crypto winter — set into motion by factors ranging from excess leverage to widespread profit-taking by OGs.”
Short-term, Bitunix analysts said that risk-off sentiment and de-leveraging are occurring simultaneously amid the government shutdown-triggered delay of the nonfarm payrolls report, which they say weakens the anchoring of policy expectations. In this environment, bitcoin has become a key barometer for whether the market is still willing to absorb risk.
Bitunix analysts view the current $80,000 level as a critical structural resistance that would signal a return of risk capital. On the downside, $75,000 represents a key support zone, reflecting the market’s absorption threshold amid ongoing de-leveraging.
“Whether BTC can hold this range will determine if the crypto market continues with a passive adjustment or begins to show relative resilience and structural divergence,” they said.
Finally, bitcoin ETFs flows are back in the green, registering $561.8 million in inflows on Monday, following $1.49 billion in outflows last week, according to SoSoValue.
Glassnode analysts wrote that while spot volume rebounded, “the rise looks more reactive than constructive, reflecting churn during downside continuation rather than confident dip buying.”
“Overall, conditions have shifted into a clear risk-off regime across spot, derivatives, ETFs, and on-chain indicators,” they wrote.
