Crypto altcoin pain deepens as red monthly candles continue to stack up
XRP, solana, and dogecoin haven’t posted a positive monthly return since September, while ethereum is on track to have its fifth consecutive monthly red candle.
Altcoins are mired in a prolonged downturn, with ethereum, XRP, solana, and dogecoin deepening their monthly losing streaks.
ethereum has dropped more than 8% in the last 30 days, on pace to record its fifth consecutive month of negative returns. XRP, solana, and dogecoin have slumped between 5% and 7% in the month, setting them up for four straight monthly red candles, data from TradingView shows.
Market-implied probabilities derived from event contracts underscore the bearish tone. Investors have priced in just a 2% chance ethereum rises above $3,500 this month, a 6% chance XRP tops $2.10, 5% odds on dogecoin climbing above $0.14, and a 1% chance solana rallies above $150.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
“It’s been a painful few months since October 10, and we’re likely in store for several more,” according to Sean Dawson, head of research at crypto options platform Derive.xyz. “Macro conditions are atrocious for the rest of Q1.”
Dawson pointed to fears around artificial intelligence exuberance creeping into the market and acting as a contributor for the recent sell-off. “With BTC / crypto now heavily correlated to equities, fears of an inflated tech sector doesn’t bode well,” Dawson told Sherwood News.
Meanwhile, President Trump named Kevin Warsh as his pick for the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. Dawson said Warsh is a candidate viewed by many as hawkish. As a result, “fears of fewer than expected rate cuts have compounded negative market sentiment,” Dawson added.
Kairos Research cofounder Ian Unsworth told Sherwood a healthy rebound is contingent on the final form of the market structure bill, the CLARITY Act. Crypto is “more integrated with traditional finance, so this bill is quite important for understanding how the next chapter unfolds,” Unsworth said.
Even though development of the CLARITY Act will be a positive step for the industry, Derive’s Dawson said it’s unlikely to drive prices in the short term. He expects the pain won’t stop and will extend to the start of February.
