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Crypto altcoin pain deepens as red monthly candles continue to stack up

XRP, solana, and dogecoin haven’t posted a positive monthly return since September, while ethereum is on track to have its fifth consecutive monthly red candle.

Altcoins are mired in a prolonged downturn, with ethereum, XRP, solana, and dogecoin deepening their monthly losing streaks.

Ethereum has dropped more than 8% in the last 30 days, on pace to record its fifth consecutive month of negative returns. XRP, solana, and dogecoin have slumped between 5% and 7% in the month, setting them up for four straight monthly red candles, data from TradingView shows. 

Cryptocurrencies have not stopped bleeding.
Cryptocurrencies have not stopped bleeding (TradingView)

Market-implied probabilities derived from event contracts underscore the bearish tone. Investors have priced in just a 2% chance ethereum rises above $3,500 this month, a 6% chance XRP tops $2.10, 5% odds on dogecoin climbing above $0.14, and a 1% chance solana rallies above $150.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

“It’s been a painful few months since October 10, and we’re likely in store for several more, according to Sean Dawson, head of research at crypto options platform Derive.xyz. Macro conditions are atrocious for the rest of Q1.

Dawson pointed to fears around artificial intelligence exuberance creeping into the market and acting as a contributor for the recent sell-off. “With BTC / crypto now heavily correlated to equities, fears of an inflated tech sector doesn’t bode well,” Dawson told Sherwood News.

Meanwhile, President Trump named Kevin Warsh as his pick for the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. Dawson said Warsh is a candidate viewed by many as hawkish. As a result, “fears of fewer than expected rate cuts have compounded negative market sentiment,” Dawson added.

Kairos Research cofounder Ian Unsworth told Sherwood a healthy rebound is contingent on the final form of the market structure bill, the CLARITY Act. Crypto is “more integrated with traditional finance, so this bill is quite important for understanding how the next chapter unfolds,” Unsworth said. 

Even though development of the CLARITY Act will be a positive step for the industry, Derive’s Dawson said it’s unlikely to drive prices in the short term. He expects the pain won’t stop and will extend to the start of February.

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Hyperliquid reclaims all-time high

HYPE, the native token powering perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid and its underlying blockchain, rebounded to reclaim its all-time high previously set at the start of the month.

Treasury firms Hyperliquid Strategies and Hyperion DeFi have also rallied as the token increased double digits in the last 24 hours to trade as high as $76.70, rising past its record price set nearly two weeks ago, according to CoinGecko. In the interim between all-time highs, HYPE pulled back to around $53.

The token has several tailwinds, the first coming from ETF flows. Since their inception in May, HYPE ETFs have yet to record negative weekly outflows, posting a cumulative total net inflow of $171.8 million, per SoSoValue.

The second comes from Hyperliquid spending basically everything it earns in fees to buy HYPE, a mechanism embedded into the protocol’s codebase.

The venue’s buyback funding mechanism is set to add a new source of yield. Validators of the network activated “AQAv2,” which means stablecoin deployers will share about 90% of reserve yield revenue on their supply within the protocol.

Around $6.1 billion of Circle’s USDC resides in Hyperliquid, per DefiLlama. Accrual begins on August 26 and the first payment is made on October 3, the network announced in its Discord channel last week.

A substantial amount of capital is riding on different positions of HYPE. In total, a move down to under $53 would result in the liquidation nearly 1.8 million HYPE worth of leveraged long positions on the on-chain perps venue, or $131.7 million, data from CoinGlass shows. For the upside, a climb above $100 results in the liquidation of more than 3 million worth of leveraged HYPE short positions, or $221.5 million.

HYPE’s rebound to all-time high comes after Michael Selig, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, defended his agency’s decision to approve regulated perpetuals, or futures contracts without expiration dates, CNBC reported on Monday.

Last month, the CFTC approved bitcoin perpetual futures trading in the US through regulated prediction markets firm Kalshi and an affiliate of centralized exchange Coinbase.

“Perps are highly likely to become lightly regulated and thus approved in the US,” said David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund.

“We expect to see perps for many different types of assets, from commodities to equities,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

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Crypto market snaps back as sentiment lifts, with altcoins from ethereum to XRP soaring

The market capitalization of the crypto industry has jumped around $83.2 billion in the last 24 hours, with privacy-focused token Zcash and worldcoin, the native cryptocurrency of the network backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, leading market gains, jumping over 22%.

But the last 24 hours have been good across the board:

Investors have been eager to see some positive signs around the Iranian conflict ending, coupled with hopeful outlooks around the CLARITY act, both breathing some life into assets, Kairos Research cofounder Ian Unsworth told Sherwood News.

Simon Shockey, a crypto strategist at crypto wallet infrastructure firm Privy, said the upswing stems from several things converging. He pointed to how alt markets broadly were very oversold following the bug found in Zcash that shook confidence.

Friday, Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox said Anthropic didn’t find any more serious bugs with the Zcash protocol after Shielded Labs requested the AI firm run a security audit of the network with Mythos.

Shockey added that the pool of willing sellers has dwindled. Even if structurally, AI is a much more compelling and asymmetric bet in the eyes of allocators, many of these crypto assets have simply run out of marginal sellers despite some shorter-term narrative-driven pumps. The only people left to sell at this point are the teams themselves and VCs.

Net-net: oversold conditions plus exhausted seller bases plus a macro backdrop thats stabilized equals a snapback, especially in names that have real usage or community conviction behind them,” Shockey told Sherwood.

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