Bitcoin faces $80,000 resistance level

Bitcoin is struggling to hold the $78,000 level and faces resistance at the $80,000 level amid geopolitical tensions putting pressure on risk assets.

While there was quick optimism after bitcoin hit its highest level since early February, several analysts said the asset still faces headwinds.

“Out of the woods short-term? No. Bitcoin crossing $78K is a bounce, not a bottom. The tape moved, the structure didn’t. Until it reclaims the downtrend line drawn from the $126K cycle high on a weekly close, we treat this as a dead cat bounce, a mechanical rebound at a level the market was always going to defend once, not evidence the correction is over,” Zaid Khan, CEO of Manhattan Crypto Capital, told Sherwood News, adding that the most expensive mistake investors make in crypto is confusing a mechanical bid for a structural one.

Short-term (in the next 4 to 12 weeks), Khan said he’s skeptical of the bounce, and the reasons they are “not chasing” include that $78,000 is a reflex level, not a conviction level.

“Systematic desks, CTAs [commodity trading advisers], and short covers are mechanically programmed to bid in this zone. A bounce here is plumbing, not thesis,” he said.

In addition, Khan said that bitcoin is still trading below the downtrend line from $126,000, weekly momentum is still cooling, and there’s no accumulation signature in the volume.

“Price lifted through air — that’s not the same as buyers showing up,” he said.

In terms of potential risks, Khan cited a sustained macro risk-off regime, which would extend the correction beyond the first bounce. ETF flow reversals and liquidity thinness, as “weekend, and low-volume sessions distort both the bounces and the breakdowns,” could also put pressure on the asset, he said.

Finally, the consensus trap. “When everyone exhales at the same time, that’s usually the setup for the next leg lower, not the bottom,” Khan said.

Khan is watching for a weekly close above the downtrend line from $126,000, with an expanding range, which could open the path to $202,748.

“$63,560 — our first accumulation band. Highest-probability test zone. $48,642 — structural support. A weekly close below here and we flip defensive, rotating capital into private credit, gold, or cash,” Khan said.

Khan noted that they remain structurally bullish over the 12- to 24-month term, as a ~38% drawdown from the $126,000 peak is a normal feature of bitcoin bull cycles, not a warning.

“Our composite Quant Regime Score is 63/100, with Risk-On at 58 versus Risk-Off at 42 — constructive, not euphoric. The cycle is paused, not over,” he said.

Other analysts agreed that headwinds remain for bitcoin, including what Glassnode analysts call the “next wall”: the short-term holder cost basis. This stands just over $80,000 and “represents the average acquisition price of investors who purchased within the last 155 days, a cohort historically proven to be the most price-sensitive in the market,” they said.

As price nears their break-even level, “the behavioral incentive to exit positions intensifies, making this zone a natural source of distribution pressure,” they said.

“This pattern suggests that the $78k–$80.1k zone represents significant near-term resistance, while $70k is increasingly assuming the role of a developing mid-term support floor as the market works through this overhead supply,” they said.