Crypto
A member of idol group Kasotsuka Shojo (Virtual Currency Girls) wearing a bitcoin mask
A member of idol group Kasotsuka Shojo (Virtual Currency Girls) wearing a bitcoin mask (Kazuhiro Nogi/Getty Images)

Analyst: “We are now clearly in a bull market phase” as bitcoin hits highest level since February

So far this month, bitcoin is up nearly 15%, surpassing April’s historical average.

Bitcoin jumped past $78,500 Wednesday, its highest level since early February. The asset is up 3% over the past 24 hours as optimism builds following President Trump’s extension of the ceasefire with Iran. So far this month, Bitcoin is up 14.77%, surpassing April’s historical average of 11.47%, according to CoinGlass.

Underscoring the enthusiasm, CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 62 (greed), its highest level since late July.

“We are now clearly in a bull market phase, characterized by the market shrugging off negative news, including the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the very recent record DeFi hack of 2026, where $300 million was stolen from KelpDAO. Despite both events occurring only in the past week, bitcoin is breaching new levels and sits at a more than two-month high,” Ishmael Asad, a research analyst at Bitwise, told Sherwood News.

Several analysts echoed the bullish sentiment, citing the realized price as a gauge for a potential upward trajectory.

Zach Pandl, Grayscale head of research, wrote in a post that as the realized price for bitcoin transacted over the last one to three months stands at $74,000, recent buyers are back to breakeven. He added that bitcoin moving higher would indicate that more recent buyers would move into positive profit and loss, a potential signal of the start of a bull market.

BTC realized price by age
(Glassnode)

Pandl told Sherwood that we are seeing increasing evidence that bitcoin has put in a durable bottom.

“A sustained break above $80K would increase our conviction further. From a fundamental standpoint, progress on the CLARITY Act in the US Senate may hold the key,” Pandl said.

Wave Digital Assets’ head of international portfolio management, Rajiv Sawhney, told Sherwood that the rally was off the back of Trump extending the ceasefire indefinitely, as the market continues to treat these extensions as a path toward eventual resolution rather than a binary risk.

“Hence, outside of total war escalation, any negotiations or prospects for negotiations are, in general, priced into an eventual-resolution end state,” Sawhney said.

Sawhney added, however, that the KelpDAO hack and its knock-on secondary effects remain an overhang for crypto, as lending on Aave, the largest DeFi money market protocol, remains in limbo.

“As such, while BTC may be able to contend with a move higher towards $80K, the broader cryptocurrency complex may not necessarily follow suit,” he said.

Finally, bitcoin ETFs continue to stay in the green, though recording a meager $11.84 million in inflows on Tuesday, stemming solely from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF, and the newly launched Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust.

In April, bitcoin ETFs have registered $1.87 billion in inflows, their best month since October.

Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Sherwood that the near-term setup looks constructive, with expectations for bitcoin to trade within the $75,000 to $90,000 range in the coming weeks. A move toward the upper end depends on sustained institutional inflows and continued macro stability.

More Crypto

See all Crypto
crypto

Hyperliquid reclaims all-time high

HYPE, the native token powering perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid and its underlying blockchain, rebounded to reclaim its all-time high previously set at the start of the month.

Treasury firms Hyperliquid Strategies and Hyperion DeFi have also rallied as the token increased double digits in the last 24 hours to trade as high as $76.70, rising past its record price set nearly two weeks ago, according to CoinGecko. In the interim between all-time highs, HYPE pulled back to around $53.

The token has several tailwinds, the first coming from ETF flows. Since their inception in May, HYPE ETFs have yet to record negative weekly outflows, posting a cumulative total net inflow of $171.8 million, per SoSoValue.

The second comes from Hyperliquid spending basically everything it earns in fees to buy HYPE, a mechanism embedded into the protocol’s codebase.

The venue’s buyback funding mechanism is set to add a new source of yield. Validators of the network activated “AQAv2,” which means stablecoin deployers will share about 90% of reserve yield revenue on their supply within the protocol.

Around $6.1 billion of Circle’s USDC resides in Hyperliquid, per DefiLlama. Accrual begins on August 26 and the first payment is made on October 3, the network announced in its Discord channel last week.

A substantial amount of capital is riding on different positions of HYPE. In total, a move down to under $53 would result in the liquidation nearly 1.8 million HYPE worth of leveraged long positions on the on-chain perps venue, or $131.7 million, data from CoinGlass shows. For the upside, a climb above $100 results in the liquidation of more than 3 million worth of leveraged HYPE short positions, or $221.5 million.

HYPE’s rebound to all-time high comes after Michael Selig, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, defended his agency’s decision to approve regulated perpetuals, or futures contracts without expiration dates, CNBC reported on Monday.

Last month, the CFTC approved bitcoin perpetual futures trading in the US through regulated prediction markets firm Kalshi and an affiliate of centralized exchange Coinbase.

“Perps are highly likely to become lightly regulated and thus approved in the US,” said David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund.

“We expect to see perps for many different types of assets, from commodities to equities,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

crypto

Crypto market snaps back as sentiment lifts, with altcoins from ethereum to XRP soaring

The market capitalization of the crypto industry has jumped around $83.2 billion in the last 24 hours, with privacy-focused token Zcash and worldcoin, the native cryptocurrency of the network backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, leading market gains, jumping over 22%.

But the last 24 hours have been good across the board:

Investors have been eager to see some positive signs around the Iranian conflict ending, coupled with hopeful outlooks around the CLARITY act, both breathing some life into assets, Kairos Research cofounder Ian Unsworth told Sherwood News.

Simon Shockey, a crypto strategist at crypto wallet infrastructure firm Privy, said the upswing stems from several things converging. He pointed to how alt markets broadly were very oversold following the bug found in Zcash that shook confidence.

Friday, Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox said Anthropic didn’t find any more serious bugs with the Zcash protocol after Shielded Labs requested the AI firm run a security audit of the network with Mythos.

Shockey added that the pool of willing sellers has dwindled. Even if structurally, AI is a much more compelling and asymmetric bet in the eyes of allocators, many of these crypto assets have simply run out of marginal sellers despite some shorter-term narrative-driven pumps. The only people left to sell at this point are the teams themselves and VCs.

Net-net: oversold conditions plus exhausted seller bases plus a macro backdrop thats stabilized equals a snapback, especially in names that have real usage or community conviction behind them,” Shockey told Sherwood.

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC and Chartr Limited produce fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and are fully owned subsidiaries of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Money, LLC, Robinhood U.K. Ltd, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, Robinhood Gold, LLC, Robinhood Asset Management, LLC, Robinhood Credit, Inc., Robinhood Ventures DE, LLC and, where applicable, its managed investment vehicles.