Bitcoin briefly reclaims key $80,000 level
A late Friday compromise on the CLARITY Act is boosting optimism for bitcoin in the longer term as well as shares of Circle and Coinbase today.
Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 level early Monday for the first time since January, but fell below that mark shortly after amid increased tensions with Iran. The move suggests that as bitcoin enters May, macro and geopolitical drivers continue to shape its narrative.
Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood News that the rally was driven by the easing in oil prices rather than strong buying, so bitcoin is reacting sharply as Brent futures surge back above $110 per barrel.
“The two have been strongly inversely correlated throughout the war, so as long as Brent remains above $110, it will continue to drag bitcoin lower. If BTC can’t hold above $79,500 today, the near-term direction of travel will be lower rather than higher,” he said.
Another factor experts are watching is the True Market Mean of $78,000, “a critical threshold” representing the cost basis of active investors and a line between profit and loss for active investors, said Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network.
Misir said that the Active Investors Mean is at $85,000, the short-term Cost Basis is at $79,200, and the Realized Price is at $54,100.
“Bitcoin technical and flow signals will be a key watch with $78K (TMM) acting as immediate resistance/support, while $65K–$70K serves as a structural support zone. Sustained ETF inflows and reduced short pressure would support a breakout. Weak flows combined with macro stress would reinforce the range,” Misir said.
Beyond macro drivers, additional signals pointing to a stretched market include open interest, which has surged to $57.6 billion, and positioning, which remains heavily skewed toward shorts in bitcoin and longs in altcoins, Misir said.
In terms of risks, Misir said that high open interest coupled with low spot liquidity creates an environment “where price can move quickly and decisively once a catalyst emerges.”
“The next move will not be gradual. It will be triggered. For now, the market remains compressed as bitcoin attempts to scale the $80K level once again,” he said.
Another potential bitcoin boost would be progress on the stalled CLARITY Act, as optimism builds following Senators Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) releasing a stablecoin yield compromise. The potential movement on the act is boosting stablecoin issuer Circle as well as Coinbase, which both stand to benefit from the revised language allowing “stablecoin rewards.” According to Benchmark Managing Director Mark Palmer, the markup on the bill is expected the week of May 11.
Ishmael Asad, a Bitwise research analyst, told Sherwood that to reclaim and stay above the $80,000 level through May, we’ll need at least a neutral to positive environment on the macro side (flat or lower rates) and a steady, albeit possibly slow, march toward passage of the CLARITY Act.
As for the week ahead, Dean Chen, a Bitunix analyst, said that though short-term price action remains constructive, thanks to the (briefly) reclaimed $80,000 level, the heavy concentration of liquidity at elevated levels also implies that volatility could expand significantly throughout the week.
Chen said that a liquidation heat map analysis indicated the $79,500 to $81,000 region has undergone a concentrated short-side liquidity squeeze, while the $77,000 to $78,000 range is now acting as the primary short-term defensive zone for leveraged longs.
“The market has effectively entered a classic high-leverage hedging environment,” Chen said.
