Bitcoin lifts following Trump’s “great progress” comments, may break 5-month losing streak
“Under the surface, the market is not broken, though it is still thin.”
Bitcoin saw a small bump on Monday morning, rising along with the broader market, following President Trump’s comments that “great progress has been made” in discussion with Iran, while also posting that if no deal is reached about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the US would “completely obliterate” Iran’s energy infrastructure and Kharg Island.
Bitcoin crossed $68,000 early Monday morning and is up 1% in March. With one day to go, it could now close the month in the green, breaking its five-month losing streak, CoinGlass data shows.
Still, the overall sentiment is cautious, as macro and geopolitical factors remain key drivers of bitcoin’s price, at least in the short term.
Sidrah Fariq, global head of retail at Deribit, told Sherwood News that markets remain uncertain amid mixed signals from the Trump administration regarding the situation in Iran. In turn, she said, investor reaction has been cautious and fragmented.
“BTC is still awaiting a clear catalyst to break through the 80K level. On Deribit, put premium continues to trade richer than calls across tenors, reflecting persistent demand for downside protection. Dealer gamma remains positive in the 65K-70K range, suggesting dealers are likely to buy dips and sell rallies, keeping price action relatively range-bound,” Fariq said, adding that markets will remain choppy in the $65,000 to $74,000 range. If we get to a ceasefire, bitcoin could rip higher.
For now, though, bitcoin is marching to the beat of the news and is stuck in the tight range it’s been trading in for weeks, with no extreme movement in either direction.
Danny Nelson, a research analyst at Bitwise, told Sherwood that while bitcoin has performed well since the start of the conflict (up nearly 1%, while the S&P 500 is down over 6%), its intraday price moves with the news.
Nelson said that when Trump threatened to bomb Iranian power plants on March 21, bitcoin immediately fell 2.6% — and when he walked back the threat on March 23, it jumped 4%.
“If this war escalates and shipping through not only Hormuz but also the Suez Canal (which Iranian-backed Houthis can threaten) halts, it could trigger a recession. This worst-case scenario dampens the market for risk-on assets, like bitcoin. It makes establishing a base above $70K much harder. This dynamic will weigh on bitcoin until the war recedes,” Nelson said.
Stephen Wundke, strategy and revenue director at Algoz, agreed, telling Sherwood that given the global uncertainty around the Iran war and the effects of oil and gas shortages, it is impossible to see big gains for BTC.
“Currently, the macro conditions make that very difficult. On the positive side, BTC retested recent lows and found a way to bounce. However, trading volumes are so thin that moves may be slightly more exaggerated than normal,” Wundke said.
Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs registered their first weekly outflow since the war began, with a $296.1 million exodus last week, according to SoSoValue.
“That matters because ETF demand had been carrying part of the recovery narrative. A reversal here shifts the burden back onto spot demand and short-covering,” Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said. Misir added that one week of outflows does not define a trend.
“Two or three would. For now, bitcoin still has room to rebound if macro stress eases, but the market needs stronger spot demand to turn a tactical bounce into a durable recovery,” he said.
At the same time, bitcoin ETFs are also set to close the month with $1.1 billion in inflows, their first monthly inflow since October 2025. While this volume is a far cry from the bombastic $3 billion to $6 billion monthly inflows of the past, it does reflect renewed (yet subdued) institutional interest.
As Misir put it, the crypto tape is telling a cautious story and “macro is still in command.”
“Under the surface, the market is not broken, though it is still thin. Bitcoin sits at the lower bound of the $60K–$70K new-buyer cost basis range, where supply accumulation is visible but still lighter than the stronger bases seen before prior durable recoveries. That makes the setup constructive in shape, not yet in depth,” Misir said.
