Bitcoin suffering “Painvember” as bitcoin ETFs suffer $1.1 billion in outflows

Bitcoin’s fourth quarter is now the worst since 2018, outpacing 2022 and 2019 and on track to surpass 2014’s 16.7% decline. November has historically been bitcoin’s best month, with an average return of 42.5%, but this month is shaping up to be “Painvember” as the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index drops to 14, indicating “extreme fear.”

Bitcoin dipped below $93,000 on Sunday, its lowest level since April, and was below $94,000 as of 10:30 a.m. ET Monday, a more than 25% drop from its October 6 all-time high. It’s roughly flat for 2025.

“Capitulation indicators are flashing. Short-term holder cohorts, those who bought in the last six to twelve months are materially underwater with an average basis near $94,000; realized losses in this group are at levels that historically mark panic peaks,” Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said.

“A reclaim and hold above $100,000 (and steady ETF inflows) would be the clean path back to structural recovery; failure opens room to $88k–$92k,” he said.

John Glover, CIO at Ledn, expects bitcoin to go even lower, telling Sherwood News that it has now broken down below the 23.6% retracement level, and the loss of this support now confirms that we will test the 38.2% Fibonacci target at $84,000. (Fibonacci retracements “are used to identify potential pullbacks within an existing trend.”)

Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs recorded a massive $1.1 billion in outflows last week, bringing the total to $2.3 billion leaving the funds in November, trending to surpass the worst monthly outflows of $3.5 billion in February 2025, according to SoSoValue.

Maja Vujinovic, CEO and cofounder of digital assets at FG Nexus, told Sherwood that the exodus is about macro, mechanics, and profit taking. 

She said that tech and growth sold off sharply last week, and bitcoin is still traded like a high-beta tech asset by institutions. Meanwhile, hedge fund de-risking is also a driver as a “lot of fast-money players rotated into BTC ETFs for the Q3–Q4 run-up.” Finally, large allocators are trimming positions and some are harvesting tax losses elsewhere while reducing crypto exposure, she said.

Other analysts note that significant outflows are typically among the best indicators that we’re nearing the bottom and a reversal is coming. 

“This could even be the last buying opportunity under $100,000 this cycle. However, I would want to see the price rally above $98,000 on strong volume to confirm the reversal is in play. If the volume is low, we could see it rejected in the short term,” Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood.

Perma-bull Michael Saylor, whose company Strategy is increasingly under fire due to its mNAV falling below 1, wasn’t deterred, however. Strategy acquired 8,178 bitcoin for $835.6 million, its largest acquisition since July 29, which brings its stash to 649,870 bitcoin.

“As bitcoin’s price declines, we continue to see compressing mNAV premiums across the bitcoin treasury market. This is to be expected. As market participants reprice risk, capital rotates out of momentum trades, and equity valuations normalize toward the intrinsic value of the underlying BTC holdings rather than speculative forward assumptions,” Brandon Turp, cofounder of BitcoinQuant, told Sherwood.