CLARITY Act could help reshape bitcoin’s narrative for second half of 2026

Anticipation around the CLARITY Act markup tomorrow is building, as the compromise draft is perceived as a breakthrough following months of legislative stalemate. Whether this progress will be sufficient to push bitcoin higher is unclear, but experts said this development could help reshape bitcoin’s narrative for the second half of the year.

“Thursday isn’t the finish line, it’s the gate. A clean markup is what tells institutional capital it’s safe to come off the sidelines,” Jimmy Xue, cofounder and COO of Axis, told Sherwood News, adding that a clean markup is largely priced in, so the bigger move for bitcoin is “asymmetric to the downside” if it stalls.

Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, agreed that a significant amount of optimism about the markup already appears to be priced into bitcoin, but any delay, dilution, or failure to meet expectations could weigh on bitcoin.

In the longer term, Xue said that markets may be underestimating how materially this week could reshape both crypto price action and institutional positioning for the rest of 2026. In addition to the markup this week, the Fed is about to get its first leader who understands the asset class, he said.

“Whatever the near-term price action, the structural setup for the back half of 2026 looks fundamentally different,” Xue said.

For now, bitcoin might be pinned around the $80,000 mark for another two to four weeks of range-bound action before a decisive break either way, Zaid Khan, CEO of Manhattan Crypto Capital, told Sherwood, adding that the longer it consolidates in this zone, the cleaner the base becomes for the next directional move.

Kahn said the next rejection zone is at $82,000, and a two-day close above this level could reopen the path toward $85,582, $89,960, and ultimately the $97,038 cycle high. He noted what must go right for this depends on ETF flows continuing to be durable, mining supply staying constrained, and the macro rate path remaining supportive.

Kahn said that while the CLARITY Act markup is a positive catalyst, he sees it more as a confidence layer than as a price ignition event.

“The market has been pricing in the probability of a structured US crypto framework for months,” Kahn said.

In the longer term, Kahn expects higher prices in the back half of 2026, and other catalysts he is watching include the next FOMC dot plot and any softening on the 2026 cut path, the pace of corporate bitcoin treasury additions, as well as “any acceleration in sovereign or pension allocation announcements, which would be the genuine asymmetric catalyst.”