Bitcoin’s bull-bear cycle signal turns green
When the indicator moves out of bear territory and enters the early bull zone, it often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and that market structure is beginning to recover, according to one analyst.
Bitcoin is holding the $80,000 level despite a hotter-than-expected inflation print and continued uncertainty around a deal with Iran. The asset was just under $81,000 early Tuesday, and while not all the stars are aligned, some positive indicators are emerging.
CryptoQuant verified author, Ignacio Moreno said on X that bitcoin’s bull-bear cycle indicator turned green for the first time since March 2023.
“Historically, this has been an important regime-change signal. When the indicator moves out of bear territory and enters the early bull zone, it often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and that market structure is beginning to recover,” Moreno wrote in a post.
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Sherwood News that bitcoin holding firm, underpinned by strong institutional support and continued ETF inflows, signals resilience amid risk-on sentiment.
Zhang said that with macro conditions remaining favorable, “BTC is positioned for a potential breakout toward $85K–$90K.”
Other experts had a more nuanced take on bitcoin’s resilience. Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract, told Sherwood, “BTC is trading around $80,600 this morning, which is firm given the macro backdrop, but it is still roughly 36% below the October 2025 all-time high. The fairer description is that crypto is holding up better than many expected against a worsening backdrop, not that crypto is at records while equities break down.”
Further building optimism for crypto markets, the Senate Banking Committee released on Monday evening the updated full draft of the CLARITY Act, which is set for markup on Thursday. Several experts said this could be a catalyst for bitcoin to finally break out of the tight range it’s been stuck in.
Another hopeful sign for bitcoin, according to Bitfinex analysts, is that conviction buyers, who have a long-term horizon and are less skittish about abrupt price moves, are currently holding nearly 4 million bitcoin, the largest surge in this cohort since the COVID-19 crash in 2020.
“Prior peaks in this metric have historically preceded major price recoveries, as reduced sell-side pressure from long-term holders tightens available supply,” they said.
Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs recorded a meager $27.29 million in inflows on Monday, following two consecutive days of outflows, according to SoSoValue. Still, so far this month, they have registered $1.28 billion in inflows, on track to surpass April’s $1.97 billion.
Looking ahead, Haeems said that after today’s CPI print, the question is not whether the crypto rally is sustainable “in the abstract.” Instead, it is whether higher oil prices and higher yields prove temporary, or whether they tighten financial conditions enough to force a broader reduction in risk across both tech and crypto, he said.
