Ethereum stays range-bound as daily ETF inflows spike to highest since January
On Wednesday, spot ethereum ETFs recorded $169.4 million worth of inflows.
Even though ethereum is prone to volatility, the token has managed to hold within a range of $1,910 to $2,180 amid geopolitical conflict in the past week.
“We started to see some conversation that crypto held up really well during that session, even in the face of what’s going on in Iran,” said Fredrick Collins, CEO of crypto analytics platform Velo.xyz.
This feeds a theory that positioning is very light in the space. “Traders were cutting risk across all of their positions Monday morning — so if crypto held up, it suggests that very few people have any positions left in crypto,” Collins told Sherwood News.
“The value here as a safe haven has been unreliable, but recently it’s served as a strong portfolio ballast and that’s noticeable,” Collins continued. “I’d expect inflows to persist for a bit, and probably a lower-than-usual correlation to equities as well.”
The price action comes as spot ethereum ETFs saw $169.4 million in inflows on Wednesday, the most in a single day since January, per SoSoValue. To begin attracting people’s attention from a price perspective, ethereum would need to trade over $2,500, “given how beaten down it’s been,” Collins added.
On the bearish side, Collins said ethereum falling under $1,900 would make it an asset in a clear downtrend. “Beneath $1,900 are prices we’ve spent a very low percent of the year at,” he said. “We can see the majority of the range post last month’s sell-off has been above it, and unless any further trips beneath it are short-lived, that would probably signify a bit of a defeat for all of the last month’s buyers.”
Hovering below the $2,100 level Thursday, ethereum is trading well under the cost basis of almost every ethereum treasury firm, data from blockchain analytics firm Artemis shows.
For example, Bit Digital, a firm with one of the biggest stockpiles, at 155,434 tokens, said the total average acquisition price for its ethereum holdings was approximately $3,045, according to the firm’s monthly report published on Thursday.
Market-implied probabilities derived from event contracts show traders are currently pricing in a 34% chance ethereum rises above $2,500 in March and a 17% likelihood the token climbs as high as $2,750.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
