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FTX Arena (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
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FTX customers could finally get their money back as reorganization begins

It took two years, and while some investors are not holding their breath for the money, they’re surprisingly still bullish on crypto overall.

A little more than two years after FTX’s collapse, today might be the day of reckoning for crypto investors who lost money on the platform. On December 16, FTX and its debtors announced that the Chapter 11 plan of reorganization would happen on January 3 in partnership with BitGo and Kraken, with payouts to follow.  

“The Initial Distribution is expected to occur within 60 days of the Effective Date, with participation subject to know-your-customer and other distribution requirements,” an FTX news release said.

FTX’s blowout and collapse in November 2022 affected hundreds of thousands of investors, many of whom lost their life savings. But finally these customers may get their money back. One investor, who we’ll call Harry (not his real name), spoke with Sherwood News about his experience. 

I was working in a crypto company, and on the day it happened the news came through CoinDesk and other crypto publications, and the announcement came through emails,” Harry said. “I tried to withdraw the money, but there was a huge run, so I wasn’t able to.”

Although Harry didn’t lose his life savings — he usually kept about $20,000 to $30,000 on the platform, but at the time had around $6,000 — he was shocked. Harry’s crypto investments were primarily in bitcoin and FTT, FTX’s native coin.

“You perceive the figures who ran the company as vetted and regulated giants who have credit. Sam was everywhere,” Harry said, referring to FTX founder Bankman-Fried. “He was the next messiah in crypto.” 

But Bankman-Fried was no savior — he was the leader of a massive crypto fraud. Last March, he was sentenced to 25 years in prison and ordered to pay $11 billion for his fraudulent schemes, the Department of Justice said. 

According to an October release, FTX had between $14.7 billion and $16.5 billion available for distribution. Under this plan, “98% of the creditors of FTX by number will receive approximately 119% of the amount of their allowed claims within 60 days after the effective date of the plan.”

Harry filed a claim on the FTX debtors’ customer portal but said “he’s not holding his breath” for a payout.

“You’re sort of living in hope, but at the same time, with anything like this, you bite the bullet and consider you will never get your money back,” he added.

There are some caveats to the payouts, notably that the repayments are based on the price of the assets at the time of FTX’s collapse. In November 2022, bitcoin was worth between $15,000 and $17,000. Now it’s hovering around $100,000 — a more than 500% increase — which stings for many investors. The same goes for ethereum, which was worth between $1,200 and $1,600 at the time of FTX’s blowout. Today it’s at over $3,600.

That said, the process went relatively fast. For comparison, the Mt. Gox debacle took 10 years for customers to get their money back, and the payments are still ongoing.

Fast doesn’t mean smooth, though. FTX investors are taking to Reddit and X to share the difficulties, from Kraken or BitGo not supporting their state or country of residence, to the Kafkaesque chain of necessary steps.

When asked whether an FTX-like collapse could happen again, Harry doesn’t hesitate. “Absolutely,” he said. “If anything, FTX has shown that the industry is not mature enough, that there is not enough regulation, and that there is not enough compliance to vet people. Everything is a catch-up game. The space is growing exponentially too fast.” 

Yet Harry still has faith in crypto. He now has “upward of $200,000” in assets, mostly bitcoin, ethereum, Solana, and “a few gambling coins.”

But there is one difference in how he approaches these investments now. While he trades on centralized exchanges, he doesn’t keep his money on them, but stores most of it in cold wallets.

“I would never hold any amount that is going to change my life on exchanges anymore,” he said.

Additionally, Harry said it’s crucial to pay attention to due diligence and not ride the wave of the hype and the media so much. 

“Also, don’t put more than you are willing to lose in centralized places — there’s always human error, regulation, and cults of personality.”

While he contends that the industry still needs to mature in its organization and regulation, he’s willing to take these risks.

“These are gambling assets and there are a lot of bad actors,” he added. “But there are also good actors such as the Solana Foundation, the Avalanche Foundation, and a lot of great projects.”

As he puts it, the bad apples are the “early ones” who made a lot of money because many investors lacked knowledge about the space. “Now people conduct more research, and so it’s harder to scam anyone.”

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Meme coins have lost all their 2026 gains and continue to dive

Despite having an early lead in year-to-date gains, meme coins have round-tripped and bled even more. 

For example, frog-based token pepe was up 75% in the first four days of January, but is now about 8% lower than where it started the year. Dogecoin, shiba inu, bonk, pengu, dogwifhat, and trump tell a similar story: posting a positive gain and then slumping into the red. 

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The year-to-date price performances of the top meme coins by market capitalization (TradingView)

Meme coins, cryptocurrencies based on internet jokes that are often critiqued for lacking utility, are reflexive: they can lead gains during bullish market conditions, but see sharper declines in bearish ones. The entire category of meme coins has shed 25.8% of its valuation in the year so far, data from blockchain analytics firm Artemis shows.

The price action of meme coins comes amid a broader market decline that saw bitcoin drop to $63,000 last week as its peers revisited cycle lows

“The market has, in large, been bleeding, whether major, altcoin, or meme,” according to Nicolai Søndergaard, research analyst at on-chain data firm Nansen. “It is not surprising to me to see that larger memes as well have been trending down.”

He told Sherwood News, “If we also consider the fact that there are less active wallets now compared to a few months ago, it also makes sense that larger ‘household’ memes would decline as money shifts around to the next shiny thing.”

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XRP bouncing back faster than its peers after crypto market downturn

XRP is seeing the strongest relief bounce on Friday among its peers following the broad market downturn in crypto.

XRP hit its lowest mark since 2024 on Thursday, but the price of the cryptocurrency has increased roughly 20% in the last 24 hours, outpacing bitcoin and ethereum, which have seen 6.5% and 5.2% gains, respectively. Dogecoin has climbed 8% and solana is up 5% in the same period, data from CoinGecko shows.

XRPs “price tends to amplify market movements,” Kaiko research analyst Thomas Probst told Sherwood News. “Markets are experiencing a phase of liquidity contraction with increasing volatility. Therefore, rebounds can be frequent, even if they are rarely sustained over the long term.”

The relief comes amid increased activity on the XRP Ledger. Crypto analytics firm Santiment flagged that, during the dip, XRP Ledger saw a four-month high of “whale transactions” over $100,000 and a six-month high of unique addresses on the network in one eight-hour candle. “These are both major signals of a price reversal for any asset,” the firm said. 

Ripple, the company closely tied to XRP and its largest holder, said in a Thursday blog post that XRP is “at the heart of every institutional use case,” such as stablecoin payments, tokenized collateral, and lending markets. 

In an updated road map for the XRP Ledger, the firm outlined upcoming features that act as a “building block for composable financial ecosystems.” These features include a lending protocol, confidential transfers using zero-knowledge proofs, and a new layer of programmability to escrow primitives. 

Meanwhile, spot XRP ETFs absorbed $5.9 million worth of inflows on Thursday, helping the week remain in the black at nearly $24 million.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.