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FTX customers could finally get their money back as reorganization begins

It took two years, and while some investors are not holding their breath for the money, they’re surprisingly still bullish on crypto overall.

A little more than two years after FTX’s collapse, today might be the day of reckoning for crypto investors who lost money on the platform. On December 16, FTX and its debtors announced that the Chapter 11 plan of reorganization would happen on January 3 in partnership with BitGo and Kraken, with payouts to follow.  

“The Initial Distribution is expected to occur within 60 days of the Effective Date, with participation subject to know-your-customer and other distribution requirements,” an FTX news release said.

FTX’s blowout and collapse in November 2022 affected hundreds of thousands of investors, many of whom lost their life savings. But finally these customers may get their money back. One investor, who we’ll call Harry (not his real name), spoke with Sherwood News about his experience. 

I was working in a crypto company, and on the day it happened the news came through CoinDesk and other crypto publications, and the announcement came through emails,” Harry said. “I tried to withdraw the money, but there was a huge run, so I wasn’t able to.”

Although Harry didn’t lose his life savings — he usually kept about $20,000 to $30,000 on the platform, but at the time had around $6,000 — he was shocked. Harry’s crypto investments were primarily in bitcoin and FTT, FTX’s native coin.

“You perceive the figures who ran the company as vetted and regulated giants who have credit. Sam was everywhere,” Harry said, referring to FTX founder Bankman-Fried. “He was the next messiah in crypto.” 

But Bankman-Fried was no savior — he was the leader of a massive crypto fraud. Last March, he was sentenced to 25 years in prison and ordered to pay $11 billion for his fraudulent schemes, the Department of Justice said. 

According to an October release, FTX had between $14.7 billion and $16.5 billion available for distribution. Under this plan, “98% of the creditors of FTX by number will receive approximately 119% of the amount of their allowed claims within 60 days after the effective date of the plan.”

Harry filed a claim on the FTX debtors’ customer portal but said “he’s not holding his breath” for a payout.

“You’re sort of living in hope, but at the same time, with anything like this, you bite the bullet and consider you will never get your money back,” he added.

There are some caveats to the payouts, notably that the repayments are based on the price of the assets at the time of FTX’s collapse. In November 2022, bitcoin was worth between $15,000 and $17,000. Now it’s hovering around $100,000 — a more than 500% increase — which stings for many investors. The same goes for ethereum, which was worth between $1,200 and $1,600 at the time of FTX’s blowout. Today it’s at over $3,600.

That said, the process went relatively fast. For comparison, the Mt. Gox debacle took 10 years for customers to get their money back, and the payments are still ongoing.

Fast doesn’t mean smooth, though. FTX investors are taking to Reddit and X to share the difficulties, from Kraken or BitGo not supporting their state or country of residence, to the Kafkaesque chain of necessary steps.

When asked whether an FTX-like collapse could happen again, Harry doesn’t hesitate. “Absolutely,” he said. “If anything, FTX has shown that the industry is not mature enough, that there is not enough regulation, and that there is not enough compliance to vet people. Everything is a catch-up game. The space is growing exponentially too fast.” 

Yet Harry still has faith in crypto. He now has “upward of $200,000” in assets, mostly bitcoin, ethereum, Solana, and “a few gambling coins.”

But there is one difference in how he approaches these investments now. While he trades on centralized exchanges, he doesn’t keep his money on them, but stores most of it in cold wallets.

“I would never hold any amount that is going to change my life on exchanges anymore,” he said.

Additionally, Harry said it’s crucial to pay attention to due diligence and not ride the wave of the hype and the media so much. 

“Also, don’t put more than you are willing to lose in centralized places — there’s always human error, regulation, and cults of personality.”

While he contends that the industry still needs to mature in its organization and regulation, he’s willing to take these risks.

“These are gambling assets and there are a lot of bad actors,” he added. “But there are also good actors such as the Solana Foundation, the Avalanche Foundation, and a lot of great projects.”

As he puts it, the bad apples are the “early ones” who made a lot of money because many investors lacked knowledge about the space. “Now people conduct more research, and so it’s harder to scam anyone.”

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Ethereum looks likely to register first monthly green candle since August

Ethereum has increased nearly 4% in the last 24 hours, outpacing crypto majors in the period. 

If the asset can hold the current level, trading around $2,065, ethereum will record its first monthly green candle since August, helping the token outperform the broader market slump during the Iran War.

Amid the news, BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest ethereum treasury firm and largest staking entity, announced acquiring 71,179 tokens, or $146.3 million, in the past week. 

“Crypto is demonstrating itself to be a good war time store of value, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said in a press release

The inverse correlation of crypto (and equities) to oil has been increasing and is at the highest levels in the past year. This is logical. Until equity markets become comfortable with the future trajectory of oil prices, rising oil is a headwind for equities and crypto. And in a sense, the crypto winter likely ends when the upside risk to oil prices peaks,” Lee continued.

Meanwhile, ethereum ETFs suffered last week, with the investment vehicles registering $206.6 million in outflows, the third-most in the year, data from SoSoValue shows. 

In other ethereum news:

  • The Ethereum Foundation staked around $46.2 million worth of ethereum on Monday, according to on-chain data. “This is more ETH than they have EVER staked before,” Arkham Intelligence said on social media. 

  • Lido, the second-largest decentralized finance protocol and known for its liquid staking services, primarily for ethereum, is considering a $20 million buyback for its native token, LDO, which has plummeted nearly 96% since its all-time high of $7.30 set in 2021. 

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Altcoins have given back the majority of their gains since the Iran war began

While crypto altcoins outperformed for a long stretch after the outbreak of the US war with Iran, the asset class has retraced this past week.

XRP, solana, and ethereum have each dropped more than 6% in the past seven days as the total market capitalization for all of crypto (including bitcoin) has shed roughly $44 billion in the period, per CoinGecko.

Ethereum ETFs have also registered daily consecutive outflows for the past seven days, totaling more than $392.1 million. The last time these investment vehicles had such a streak was in December when ethereum decreased from $3,221 to $2,995, data from SoSoValue shows. 

The Iran war was at first a positioning shock that saw crypto thrive, in part because the asset class was “lightly owned,” according to Fredrick Collins, CEO of crypto analytics platform Velo.xyz

“Now as more concrete and persistent concerns about economic impacts have materialized, it’s not surprising to see crypto struggling as well,” Collins told Sherwood News. “In the face of cyclical (rather than transient) worries for risk assets in general, it’s not realistic to expect crypto to remain unscathed. And so we’ve unfortunately just not seen that initial relative strength in crypto continue to play out.”

Meanwhile, traders are expecting the price of ethereum to decline further this year. Prediction market-implied odds of the cryptocurrency sliding below $1,750 are at 81%, while the probability of the token tumbling under $1,500 stands at 68%, an increase from 52% on Monday. 

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

A drop to $1,457 would liquidate about 162,870 ethereum tokens’ worth of leveraged long positions, worth $323.3 million on Hyperliquid, per CoinGlass.

Slater Santer, a research analyst at trading firm GSR said, "Short term, the market likely remains flow-driven and headline-sensitive. Without a stabilization in ETF flows, a cooling in oil, or a renewed bid in equities, it's hard to argue for a sustained bounce in alts."

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Slater Santer, a research analyst at trading firm GSR said, "Short term, the market likely remains flow-driven and headline-sensitive. Without a stabilization in ETF flows, a cooling in oil, or a renewed bid in equities, it's hard to argue for a sustained bounce in alts."

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.