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JPMorgan: Coinbase ties to Circle, USDC could add $60 billion benefit to shareholders

Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange, has benefited from its ties with stablecoin giant Circle in ways investors may be underestimating, JPMorgan analysts said in a note Tuesday. They wrote:

“We see USDC economics as particularly attractive to Coinbase. We see attractive economics driven by both a high payout on Coinbase USDC on-platform, and essentially 100% margins for Coinbase’s share of Circle Reserve Fund economics for off-platform USDC. In 1Q25, Coinbase generated more in Circle distribution payments to Coinbase (~$300mn) than Circle generated in firmwide total net revenue (~$230mn), and we calculate Coinbase generated a 66% margin on its USDC income. Given Circle’s $50bn market capitalization, we see the value of Circle economics to Coinbase shareholders at $55-$60bn.”

Circle’s USDC has a $63.7 billion market cap and is the second-largest stablecoin. 

Coinbase has a minority interest in Circle and owns $1.6 billion of Circle stock. It also shares any Circle Reserve Fund income “not allocated to partners 50/50 with Circle.”

This alone brought in $170 million in the first quarter, which JPM analysts deemed “particularly attractive revenue for Coinbase as it requires little, if any, incremental investment by Coinbase.”

Of course, this comes against the backdrop of the GENIUS Act, which establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins, being signed into law. This is the first major crypto regulation in the US and is a landmark moment for the $265.8 billion stablecoin space and the crypto ecosystem in general.

Coinbase is set to report second-quarter earnings on July 31.

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$1.2B

XRP ETFs have now crossed $1 billion in assets since the funds launched, according to SoSoValue, which shows total assets of $1.18 billion.

In September, the SEC approved generic listing standards, which paved the way for speedier listings and opened the floodgates for these products, and shortly after, Rex-Osprey launched the first spot XRP ETF available in the US.

Canary followed suit in November, launching an ETF trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker XRPC, which saw a record $58.5 million in trading volume on its first day. It’s the largest XRP ETF in the US, with $342 million in assets.

Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton also launched their own XRP ETFs in November. On December 11, 21Shares joined the XRP fund party.

It’s a noteworthy green shoot in the crypto space, as bitcoin and its ETFs have struggled, and XRP itself is down nearly 15% over the past month.

Jake Hanley, managing director and senior portfolio specialist at Teucrium Investment Advisors — which launched the first-ever XRP-based ETF in April, the 2x Long Daily XRP ETF — told Sherwood News that he is not surprised to see this level of interest in the XRP ETFs.

“We have long held that XRP and the Ripple ecosystem present a unique investment case among crypto assets. Crossing the $1 billion mark is yet another signal of the significant vote of confidence investors have in this increasingly important asset and ecosystem,” Hanley said.

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New bitcoin AfterDark ETF will be bitcoin at night, Treasurys by day

Tidal Trust II submitted form N-1A with the SEC to register a bitcoin ETF designed to systemically capture the cryptocurrency’s overnight return profile, a time window that delivered a significant portion of bitcoin’s upside last year.

The Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF provides long bitcoin exposure during US overnight hours, from the closing bell until the following morning’s market open, when the fund intends to unwind its positions, according to a document filed with the SEC on Tuesday. 

To gain that exposure, the ETF may use a number of methods, including bitcoin futures contracts, US-listed ETFs, or exchange-traded options on such bitcoin underlying funds. When the market is open and daytime trading is active, the fund’s portfolio will consist of US Treasury securities and other cash equivalents. 

In 2024, most of bitcoin’s gains occurred after-hours, senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas reported:

The AfterDark ETF filing comes as bitcoin crossed $94,000 on Tuesday, rising 4.5% in the last 24 hours. Even though spot bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $60.5 million in outflows on Monday, the investment vehicles have a cumulative net inflow of $57.6 billion, per SoSoValue.

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