Optimism around bitcoin’s trajectory is fading following Trump’s address, as whales continue to offload

Bitcoin squeaked out a positive finish for March, up 1.8% after five consecutive months in the red, but optimism quickly faded following President Trump’s comments Wednesday evening, dampening hopes of a quick end to the conflict in the Middle East and sending oil prices soaring once again. 

Thursday morning, bitcoin is hovering around $66,000, down 3.4% over the past 24 hours, as macro and geopolitical drivers continue to shape its narrative.

Katherine Dowling, president of Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, told Sherwood News that she’s cautiously optimistic that March’s slow move to green will continue in April, but still expects any price increases to be “conservative near-term.”

Bitcoin’s monthly average return for April is 11.94%, the third-strongest historical month, according to CoinGlass.

Bitcoin has been stuck in a narrow range for the past few weeks, seemingly incapable of breaking in either direction, and as Glassnode analysts put it, “Without a clear catalyst, the market lacks the conviction needed for a sustained breakout.”

Dean Chen, a Bitunix analyst, told Sherwood that the price capped around $68,000 reflects insufficient demand-side commitment, with $65,500 standing as the key structural test level.

“Should energy shocks or military escalation intensify further, this zone may trigger a cascade of liquidity release,” Chen said.

Investors’ holdings also underscore bitcoin’s weakness and tepid conviction, with large investors having turned into net distributors, Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, wrote in a report.

“The 1-year change in whale holdings has swung from ~+200K BTC at the 2024 bull market peak to approximately -188K BTC today, representing one of the most aggressive large-holder distribution cycles on record,” Moreno said.

Meanwhile, mid-tier holders are accumulating at a declining pace since November 2025, as “their holdings growth has collapsed from ~1M BTC in October 2025 to 429K today, signaling that buying support from this cohort is fading quickly,” Moreno said.

While bitcoin ETFs registered $1.3 billion in inflows in March, following four consecutive months of outflows, it represents one of the smallest monthly inflows on record, SoSoValue data shows. They also started April with $173.3 million in outflows.

“Overall, bitcoin spot demand remains in deep contraction, despite accelerating ETF and Strategy purchases. 30-day apparent demand growth stands at -63K BTC, indicating that broader market selling pressure continues to outweigh institutional accumulation,” Moreno wrote.

While it’s hard to predict how bitcoin will fare in April, analysts highlight its resilience amid geopolitical tensions, at least as compared to other risk assets.

“Though concerns loom over quantum risk and corporate treasury selling, and policy catalysts are likely far out, we see most fundamental metrics for bitcoin having bottomed already,” Ishmael Asad, a research analyst at Bitwise, told Sherwood.

Zaid Khan, CEO of Manhattan Crypto Capital, told Sherwood he expects volatility early in the month as the price tests support around $65,000, with “sharp intra-month wicks and some downside pressure first.”

Khan’s base case is a mild upside or sideways grind, with bitcoin likely trading between $65,000 and $75,000 for most of April, potentially closing the month in the $70,000 to $72,000 range. 

On the other side, Khan’s volatile case would see bitcoin dropping 15% to 29% to test the $55,000 to $60,000 range, “or as low as our mid-accumulation level of $48,642,” as the liquidity sweep lowers first before recovering. 

For now, bitcoin remains in a bear structure, but a rebound toward $71,500 to $81,200 is possible if macro risks ease, Moreno said.

“These levels correspond to the Lower Band (~$71.5K) and the Trader On-chain Realized Price (~$81.2K), key resistance zones that historically cap bear-market rallies,” Moreno said.