Google Research: Quantum computers a “serious threat” to 6.7 million bitcoin, including Satoshi’s coins
“Their fast-clock architecture could crack a private key in 9 minutes, while bitcoin blocks take 10 minutes on average. That changes the threat model entirely.”
Google researchers sent a wake-up call to the cryptocurrency industry Tuesday, saying quantum machines will require fewer resources in the future to break classical cryptography such as those securing blockchains like bitcoin. That finding challenges conventional wisdom on the timeline of when the quantum threat to digital assets will materialize.
Google showed a twentyfold reduction in the amount of resources needed by a quantum machine to break the cryptography backing blockchain networks, according to a Tuesday blog post. As a result, the researchers recommend beginning the migration process to post-quantum cryptography immediately.
“The emergence of CRQCs [cryptographically relevant quantum computers] represents a serious threat to cryptocurrencies that demands a close examination of possible developments at the intersection of quantum computing and digital finance,” Google’s white paper says.
“While the quantum computing and cryptocurrency communities have largely operated in isolation, the significant reduction in resource requirements detailed here necessitates a convergence of these two worlds.”
Not only are 6.7 million bitcoin — including those believed to belong to bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto — vulnerable to future quantum attacks, but so are the protocols underlying the tokenization market of real-world assets, which, the paper projects, will exceed $16 trillion by 2030.
“Their fast-clock architecture could crack a private key in 9 minutes, while bitcoin blocks take 10 minutes on average. That changes the threat model entirely,” Alex Pruden, CEO and cofounder of quantum computing research firm Project Eleven, said to Sherwood News. “Every bitcoin transaction is at risk.”
“What this Google research shows is that the distance between today and that eventual ‘Q-day’ may be easier to traverse than previously thought,” Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, told Sherwood.
“The bottom line: odds are low of a quantum computer being able to attack bitcoin or blockchains in the next five years, but the Google research shows real progress,” Thorn continued.
While a quantum computer capable of successfully exploiting a blockchain does not exist yet, Google researcher Craig Gidney has placed a 10% chance one will be built by 2030. Meanwhile, Google landed on a 2029 timeline to migrate its infrastructure to post-quantum cryptography.
“Bitcoin has yet to present a fully fledged migration plan. That’s the gap that we need to close,” Pruden said.
