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Solana ETFs listings delayed as JPMorgan predicts the funds to net $1.5 billion in first year

JPMorgan analysts noted that “solana is not perceived by investors the same way as ethereum as the main DeFi/smart contract cryptocurrency.”

Solana ETFs have been delayed by the shutdown, but hopes are high they’ll hit the market shortly.

Despite the anticipation, JPMorgan analysts say inflows will be much more modest than those of bitcoin or ethereum ETFs, and anticipate $1.5 billion in inflows in their first year. To put this in context, bitcoin ETFs, which are just under 2 years old, amassed more than $2 billion in inflows in just two days this week.

JPMorgan analysts said that several drivers could lead to these lower inflows, including that “solana is not perceived by investors the same way as ethereum as the main DeFi/smart contract cryptocurrency,” as well as “investor fatigue with multiple crypto spot ETFs being launched.”

“The launch of ETFs that track more diversified crypto indexes composed of multiple crypto assets, poses additional competition,” they said, adding that “corporate treasuries could be diverting demand away from spot ETFs.”

Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, Bitwise, and Fidelity are among the firms with solana ETFs in the pipeline, for which the SEC has an October 10 deadline for approval. Grayscale amended its ETF filing on Thursday, setting the fund’s fee at a hefty 0.35%. In comparison, Bitwise, which also recently amended its filing, has a 0.20% fee and added “staking” to the fund’s name. Rex-Osprey launched a solana ETF in July, but registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, “which is different from other spot ETFs filings that are being registered under the Securities Act of 1933/34,” per JPMorgan.

Solana, the sixth-largest crypto by market cap, has been struggling this week, just like the overall crypto market. The token was trending up on Friday morning, however, and is up 58.7% in the past year.

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Solana rises amid crypto rally after “breakout month” for solana stablecoins

Stablecoin transaction volume on solana climbed to a record $650 billion last month, more than double the network’s previous record. It also saw the highest volume of any blockchain last month, according to a Wednesday note published by Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl.

“Stablecoins are one of the megatrends driving adoption of blockchain technology, and Solana is well positioned to compete in this category,” Pandl wrote.

The research note comes as the supply of stablecoins on solana has jumped to $15.4 billion, a substantial leap since the start of 2025, when the figure sat at $5.1 billion, data from open-source analytics platform DefiLlama shows. 

The price of solana has increased 7.3% in the last 24 hours to return above the $90 level, outpacing bitcoin, ethereum, and dogecoin, per CoinGecko.

International banking group Standard Chartered has predicted solana will grow to $250 by the end of 2026, pointing to a shift in activity from meme coins to solana-stablecoin pairs, aided by AI-driven micropayments.

Meanwhile, the prediction market-implied odds of solana sliding below $60 in 2026 stands at 68% on Wednesday morning, and on the bullish side, traders are pricing in a 48% chance the token will rise higher than $150 in the year. 

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Meanwhile, the prediction market-implied odds of solana sliding below $60 in 2026 stands at 68% on Wednesday morning, and on the bullish side, traders are pricing in a 48% chance the token will rise higher than $150 in the year. 

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Kraken receives approval for “master account” from the Kansas City Fed in first for crypto companies

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City approved a limited purpose account for Kraken Financial, making the exchange the first cryptocurrency company to gain access to the Fed’s payment infrastructure, according to a Wednesday report from The Wall Street Journal. 

The approval “marks the convergence of crypto infrastructure and sovereign financial rails,” according to Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi. With a Federal Reserve master account, Kraken can directly connect to core US payment systems used by traditional banks and credit unions, enabling faster and more efficient fiat movement for Kraken’s institutional clients.

Sethi continued, “This creates a uniquely resilient foundation. It gives us the ability to settle directly on Fedwire, reduce dependency on correspondent banks, and integrate regulated fiat liquidity directly into digital asset markets.”

The approval of a Fed master account comes as Kraken, which was founded in 2011, is preparing for an initial public offering.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid in a press release said the payments landscape is actively evolving. “Throughout this transformation, the integrity and stability of the U.S. payments system remain our priority,” Schmid said.

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Crypto spot ETF flows diverge, a sign of investor rotation

Investors appear to be rotating where they are placing their crypto bets, but not necessarily fleeing the asset class entirely. 

Last month, spot bitcoin ETFs registered $206.5 million in outflows, marking their fourth straight month of redemptions. Ethereum spot ETFs saw even heavier withdrawal as $369.9 million left the investment vehicles, also marking a fourth consecutive monthly outflow. 

Since November, spot bitcoin and ethereum ETFs have posted more than $9.1 billion in cumulative outflows.

Bitcoin and ethereum are the market’s virtual ATMs, according to Chris Soriano, cofounder and chief commercial officer at BridgePort. “It’s no surprise when institutions start laying off risk or meet redemptions, they naturally sell what’s most liquid first,” Soriano told Sherwood News. “This is no different than when a traditional fund manager trims S&P 500 exposure before touching their small-cap growth positions.” 

On the other hand, newer funds based on altcoins haven’t stopped recording monthly green candles. 

Spot XRP ETFs pulled in $58 million last month and have yet to post a single negative month since their launch in November. Spot solana ETFs attracted $63 million and, likewise, remain in the black since their debut in October. 

The outflows of the two largest cryptocurrencies combined with the modest inflows of the two smaller tokens suggest a rotation regime, Soriano argued. “Institutions trimming their core liquid holdings while selectively adding to high-conviction, higher-beta positions where they think there’s more juice in the squeeze. It’s not a contradiction; it’s portfolio mechanics behaving exactly as you’d expect,” Soriano continued.

He added that XRP and solana’s markets are also thinner, which means the same dollar of buying pressure registers as a louder, more persistent inflow signal than it ever would in BTC or ETH.

Nic Roberts-Huntley, CEO and cofounder of Blueprint Finance, told Sherwood that bitcoin and etheruem’s outflows combined with XRP and solana’s inflows “may signal a broader market transition, one where capital increasingly chases specific use cases rather than the entire asset class moving in lockstep.”

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.