Crypto
Brad Garlinghouse, CEO, Ripple
Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple (Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile for Collision via Getty Images)

Stablecoins are having a moment, but is there room for Ripple’s new RLUSD coin?

Dethroning longtime players is a long shot.

The crowded stablecoin space is getting busier with Ripple’s recent approval from the New York State Department of Finance for RLUSD, a dollar-pegged token set to be listed on exchanges “soon.” The timing of the coin’s debut makes sense: stablecoins are gaining more mainstream attention, Ripple is on a victory lap, and its XRP token has been on a tear, rising nearly 300% this year. And of course, the crypto regulatory environment is on course to become clearer (and friendlier) with the new administration.

Stablecoins are a type of crypto pegged to an asset, generally fiat currency like the dollar, though they can also be pegged to a commodity like gold. They aim to minimize volatility and, well, be “stable.”

While there’s an increasing appetite for stablecoins and enormous enthusiasm for RLUSD, the competition is fierce. Many players want to be part of the rapidly growing space, and whether a challenger can carve out a significant market share for itself remains to be seen.

Numbers speak for themselves: the stablecoin market crossed $200 billion for the first time on December 11, CoinDesk reported. BitWise predicts that “stablecoin assets will double to $400 billion as the US passes long-awaited stablecoin legislation.”

Sure, RLUSD has room to grow, but some established players, like Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC, have been dominating the space, and several newcomers seem to be having trouble finding their footing.

“RLUSD can become unique in the market and find its place, mainly if Ripple focuses on developing its global partnerships and the use cases for cross-border payments,” Patrick Gruhn, former head of the now defunct FTX Europe and founder of Perpetuals.com, told Sherwood News. He added, however, that entering a market led by Tether and Circle is complex and requires a clear differentiator regarding features, legal aspects, and use. 

“The success of RLUSD will depend on it providing better features such as lower charges, faster clearance, or better compliance,” Gruhn said. 

With a $140.5 billion market cap, USDT is the largest stablecoin, followed by USDC, which has a $41.6 billion market cap, per CoinGecko

Another one to watch is Ethena’s USDe, which CryptoRank reported became the third-largest stablecoin by supply on December 9.

Meanwhile, PayPal’s dollar-pegged stablecoin, PYUSD, initially had a meteoric rise when it launched last year, but is now lagging far behind the pack with just a $494 million market cap.

“PYUSD’s uphill battle against incumbents is yet more evidence that those like Ripple will also find the competition to be rather stiff,” said Brian D. Evans, CEO and founder of BDE Ventures, a venture firm focusing on digital assets and artificial intelligence.

While USDT and USDC’s dominance could shift, dethroning them would require time and effort. As Token Terminal said, USDT, with a 70% market share, is “one of the most battle-tested stablecoins in the market, having met redemptions of over 10% of its reserves in the week following the Terra/Luna collapse.”

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy is a financial journalist who’s written for Dow Jones, The Financial Times Group, and Business Insider, among others.

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Ethereum looks likely to register first monthly green candle since August

Ethereum has increased nearly 4% in the last 24 hours, outpacing crypto majors in the period. 

If the asset can hold the current level, trading around $2,065, ethereum will record its first monthly green candle since August, helping the token outperform the broader market slump during the Iran War.

Amid the news, BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest ethereum treasury firm and largest staking entity, announced acquiring 71,179 tokens, or $146.3 million, in the past week. 

“Crypto is demonstrating itself to be a good war time store of value, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said in a press release

The inverse correlation of crypto (and equities) to oil has been increasing and is at the highest levels in the past year. This is logical. Until equity markets become comfortable with the future trajectory of oil prices, rising oil is a headwind for equities and crypto. And in a sense, the crypto winter likely ends when the upside risk to oil prices peaks,” Lee continued.

Meanwhile, ethereum ETFs suffered last week, with the investment vehicles registering $206.6 million in outflows, the third-most in the year, data from SoSoValue shows. 

In other ethereum news:

  • The Ethereum Foundation staked around $46.2 million worth of ethereum on Monday, according to on-chain data. “This is more ETH than they have EVER staked before,” Arkham Intelligence said on social media. 

  • Lido, the second-largest decentralized finance protocol and known for its liquid staking services, primarily for ethereum, is considering a $20 million buyback for its native token, LDO, which has plummeted nearly 96% since its all-time high of $7.30 set in 2021. 

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Altcoins have given back the majority of their gains since the Iran war began

While crypto altcoins outperformed for a long stretch after the outbreak of the US war with Iran, the asset class has retraced this past week.

XRP, solana, and ethereum have each dropped more than 6% in the past seven days as the total market capitalization for all of crypto (including bitcoin) has shed roughly $44 billion in the period, per CoinGecko.

Ethereum ETFs have also registered daily consecutive outflows for the past seven days, totaling more than $392.1 million. The last time these investment vehicles had such a streak was in December when ethereum decreased from $3,221 to $2,995, data from SoSoValue shows. 

The Iran war was at first a positioning shock that saw crypto thrive, in part because the asset class was “lightly owned,” according to Fredrick Collins, CEO of crypto analytics platform Velo.xyz

“Now as more concrete and persistent concerns about economic impacts have materialized, it’s not surprising to see crypto struggling as well,” Collins told Sherwood News. “In the face of cyclical (rather than transient) worries for risk assets in general, it’s not realistic to expect crypto to remain unscathed. And so we’ve unfortunately just not seen that initial relative strength in crypto continue to play out.”

Meanwhile, traders are expecting the price of ethereum to decline further this year. Prediction market-implied odds of the cryptocurrency sliding below $1,750 are at 81%, while the probability of the token tumbling under $1,500 stands at 68%, an increase from 52% on Monday. 

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

A drop to $1,457 would liquidate about 162,870 ethereum tokens’ worth of leveraged long positions, worth $323.3 million on Hyperliquid, per CoinGlass.

Slater Santer, a research analyst at trading firm GSR said, "Short term, the market likely remains flow-driven and headline-sensitive. Without a stabilization in ETF flows, a cooling in oil, or a renewed bid in equities, it's hard to argue for a sustained bounce in alts."

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Slater Santer, a research analyst at trading firm GSR said, "Short term, the market likely remains flow-driven and headline-sensitive. Without a stabilization in ETF flows, a cooling in oil, or a renewed bid in equities, it's hard to argue for a sustained bounce in alts."

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.