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Standard Chartered predicts ethereum will more than double this year

The investment bank thinks the prospects for ethereum have improved, citing BitMine’s continued buying, stablecoin adoption, the plan to increase the network’s throughput, and the passage of crypto-focused legislation.

Sage D. Young

Standard Chartered expects ethereum to outperform its older sibling bitcoin in the year. 

Even though the firm lowered its end-of-year ethereum forecast from $12,000 to $7,500, Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, says the ETH-BTC ratio will return to 2021 highs.

According to a Monday research note, the forecast is largely informed by the network’s structural advantages, regulatory advancements, and flows from ETFs and treasury firms, such as BitMine Immersion Technologies, which added 24,266 tokens last week.

Standard Chartered expects the network to increase its throughput by 10x over two to three years following Vitalik Buterin’s 2025 announcement as well as optimism that the CLARITY Act, which aims to create a framework for digital asset markets, will pass the Senate.

The firm also sees stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and decentralized finance growing and for ethereum’s share to rise in tandem “as more TradFi activities move into the blockchain space, given that ethereum is trusted in the TradFi World.”

“Ethereum has been operating for over 10 years and its network has never gone down,” Kendrick wrote. “While other blockchains may be faster and cheaper, reliability will always trump marginal speed and cost savings for TradFi operators.” 

On Monday, Buterin introduced the “walkway test,” where the network’s value proposition is not strictly tied to features that are not in the protocol already.

Passing this test includes full quantum resistance, scalable architecture to “many thousands of TPS [transactions per second],” and a block-building model resistant to centralization pressures. 

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Ethereum struggles to hold market gains

After rallying from $1,830 to above $2,100 on Wednesday, ethereum struggled to hold on to its gains and dipped under $2,000, a round psychological price level, on Thursday. 

The seesaw price action helped liquidate $146 million worth of leveraged long and short positions on ethereum in the last 24 hours, data from CoinGlass shows.  

While ethereum was due for a relief rally after entering into oversold conditions as measured by its relative strength index, some are still maintaining a bearish sentiment, according to Delphi Digital analyst Simon Shockey.

With ethereum now trading under $2,000, Shockey called the rally “unconvincing.” He told Sherwood News that he doesn’t “think most crypto natives are compelled to really believe the lows are in,” adding that he could see ethereum fall further from here and make new lows in the second half of the year. 

The price action comes as cofounder Vitalik Buterin has sold $35 million worth of ethereum tokens since the start of February and the paper loss for the largest ethereum treasury firm, BitMine Immersion Technologies, has climbed to nearly $7.9 billion

On the positive side, ethereum developers introduced a new road map that involves seven hard fork upgrades by 2029 and several north stars, one of which aims to make ethereum a “post quantum” layer 1 network.

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Crypto industry sees relief bounce in midst of winter

Crypto assets and crypto-adjacent companies are catching a bid and rebounding off recent lows, with stablecoin issuer Circle soaring after reporting strong earnings before the bell. The company beat on revenue and reported that USDC in circulation has grown to $75.3 billion, up 72% year over year.

The total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies has increased 4.5% in the last 24 hours, and both tokens and companies close to crypto are enjoying a boost:

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

Despite the relief bounce, some are still uneasy. “The whole market still seems very heavy to me,” Glenn Rosenberg, managing partner at Persistent Trading, told Sherwood News. “Jokingly, BTC feels like it’s now 100% correlated to any asset or news that’s negative! I think we test 60,000 — that’s a big long-term channel and could push lower from there,” he said. “The whole [space] looks risky right now.”

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