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Bitcoin gets a positive bounce following State of the Union

“This has been a silver lining, given the tumultuous time crypto markets have had over the past months and weeks, but it does not call for celebration just yet,” one expert warned.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

Bitcoin bounced back following President Trump’s State of the Union speech Tuesday evening and is up 5.7% in the last 24 hours. The asset reached $66,900 Wednesday morning, a welcome reprieve after dropping to the $62,000 level a couple of days ago. The asset is still down 16.9% so far this month, CoinGlass data shows.

Bitcoin ETFs also returned to seeing inflows on Monday, registering $257.7 million, the most since February 6, according to SoSoValue.

Stan Low, a researcher at Grvt, told Sherwood News that bitcoin is “finally fighting back” and “demonstrating signs of recovery.”

“This has been a silver lining, given the tumultuous time crypto markets have had over the past months and weeks, but it does not call for celebration just yet,” he added.

Low said this isn’t quite yet a sign of a structural market shift, as “we are not in the clear,” given the same macro factors that have shaken the markets these past few months remain and still “plague risk markets.”

Tariff tensions, geopolitical flare-ups, and fears around digital asset treasuries selling their tokens continue to weigh on bitcoin, he said.  

Levels Low is watching for potential long squeezes resulting in downward price action around mid-$64,000, while levels to watch for upside potential via short squeezes are mid-$66,000.

Pratik Kala, head of research at Apollo Crypto, told Sherwood that bitcoin is below its point of control, as well as below its 200-week exponential moving average, which “doesn’t paint a good picture for bulls in the short term.”

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Ethereum trades sideways as Foundation bleeds members

Ethereum has been stuck between $2,000 and $2,150 in the past week amid ongoing scrutiny toward the Ethereum Foundation, which has seen its talent pool thin out.

“ETH continues to show weakness... ETH/BTC keeps grinding lower, at a 10-month low,” Jasper De Maere, a desk strategist and OTC trader at Wintermute, posted on X. “The marginal risk dollar went into equities, not crypto. When AI semis are working and yields are easing, crypto should follow. It didn’t.”

De Maere continued, “Based on our OTC flow, we see that institutional buying pressure, which was responsible for the recent +ve price action, is now fading quickly, indicating that institutional investors might be at capacity or are re-assessing risk/reward at these new levels.”

Data from SoSoValue shows ethereum ETFs have seen 10 consecutive days of outflows, totaling more than $471.1 million.

Meanwhile, the blockchain’s cofounder Vitalik Buterin, who sits on the board of the Ethereum Foundation, addressed the controversy surrounding the nonprofit over the weekend. Holding around 0.16% of ethereum’s total supply, the foundation is not the center of blockchain network, but rather “one node, with a defined purpose alongside other nodes,” according to Buterin, who says nearly 90% of his net worth is in ethereum.

“EF is still in a transition period, and we expect its new long-term form to stabilize over the next few months,” Buterin said, adding that the EF will sell ethereum less and focus on remaining censorship-resistant, open-source, private, and secure.

“The most high-value ‘product’ of the ethereum blockchain, financially speaking, is ETH the asset. Ethereum secures $250 billion of ETH,” Buterin continued. “That said, there are aspects of supporting ETH the asset — *necessary* aspects even — that are outside the scope of the EF. This is where we need other heroes (some of whom hold more ETH than the EF does) to step in and help.”

Carlos Guzman, vice president of research at crypto trading firm GSR, said Vitalik’s response is a bet on credible neutrality as ethereum’s durable competitive advantage, which attracts liquidity, users, and apps, because “builders and institutions gravitate toward platforms they can trust won’t be captured or co-opted. This is what builds network effects, and network effects are what create durable moats,” Guzman wrote on X.

And yet, Guzman argued credible neutrality is just one piece of the puzzle:

“The risk is that a nimbler chain builds sufficient network effects by executing well on fees, throughput, and UX today while promising credible neutrality tomorrow. Vitalik’s vision is arguably the right one. Whether the ecosystem can execute on it before that window closes remains uncertain.”

Traders are increasingly bearish: prediction market-implied odds of ethereum dropping below $1,750 in 2026 stand at 64%, a jump from 57% at the start of May.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Traders are increasingly bearish: prediction market-implied odds of ethereum dropping below $1,750 in 2026 stand at 64%, a jump from 57% at the start of May.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Crypto exchange Blockchain.com confidentially files for IPO

Blockchain.com, one of the oldest crypto firms, announced it confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S-1 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, a step toward conducting an initial public offering.

The number of offered shares and price range has yet to be determined, according to a Thursday press release. If the company completes its IPO, Blockchain.com would join Circle and Bullish as crypto companies that have gone public in the year.

Simultaneously, a number of other companies, namely ethereum development firm Consensys, security hardware firm Ledger, and rival crypto exchange Kraken, have paused their plans to IPO due to rough market conditions.

The exchange started in 2011 as a bitcoin search engine before expanding to providing wallets and powering bitcoin transactions. The company raised funds through a series of funding rounds, with a Series D funding round in 2022 giving the firm a $14 billion valuation at the time.

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