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Strategy founder Michael Saylor (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

TD Cowen lowers Strategy price target while bitcoin continues to rise

The analysts also set a base case assumption of bitcoin hitting $177,000 by December 26, with an upside scenario of $225,000 and a much bleaker downside scenario of $60,000.

TD Cowen analysts lowered their price target on Strategy to $440 from $500, citing its “audacious” bitcoin buying and noting that “greater equity in the mix reduces BTC yield.”

Lance Vitanza, managing director and senior analyst at TD Cowen, wrote in a January 14 note that the company “has not only survived the latest period of price compression; it has leaned into it.”

In the past week, Strategy raised $1.25 billion through the issuance of common stock and its variable-rate Stretch preferred stock, using “all but $0.5 million” to buy 13,627 bitcoin.

Vitanza added that the company remains attractive “for those looking to create bitcoin exposure,” and expects Strategy to now buy 155,000 bitcoin, versus the previous expectation of 90,000. TD Cowen maintained its “buy” rating.

Vitanza said long-term investors (four or more years) who are big believers in bitcoin should focus on the common shares, as “to the extent bitcoin outperforms most other asset classes, MSTR will outperform bitcoin handsomely, in our opinion.”

For risk-averse investors seeking exposure to bitcoin, Vitanza said they should focus on the senior preferred STRF shares.

“These shares are covered 6.4x by the value of the company’s bitcoin holdings, which means bitcoin would have to fall to $14k for the shares to even potentially become impaired,” Vitanza told Sherwood News.

TD Cowen analysts also set a base case assumption of bitcoin hitting $177,000 by December 26, with an upside scenario of $225,000 and a much bleaker downside scenario of $60,000.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin Treasuries released its 2025 Audience Survey, which found that 90% of respondents expect Strategy’s bitcoin holdings to increase, and nearly half believe the company will hold 1 million bitcoin in 2026, up from the current 687,410.

Another 12% expect Strategy to reach 1.5 million BTC, and 6% expect it to hold between 2 and 3 million BTC.

Investors also expect bitcoin digital asset treasuries to double by the end of 2026, with 32.4% expecting total corporate holdings to reach about 1.7 million bitcoin, “close to twice today’s levels.”

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Solana rises amid crypto rally after “breakout month” for solana stablecoins

Stablecoin transaction volume on solana climbed to a record $650 billion last month, more than double the network’s previous record. It also saw the highest volume of any blockchain last month, according to a Wednesday note published by Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl.

“Stablecoins are one of the megatrends driving adoption of blockchain technology, and Solana is well positioned to compete in this category,” Pandl wrote.

The research note comes as the supply of stablecoins on solana has jumped to $15.4 billion, a substantial leap since the start of 2025, when the figure sat at $5.1 billion, data from open-source analytics platform DefiLlama shows. 

The price of solana has increased 7.3% in the last 24 hours to return above the $90 level, outpacing bitcoin, ethereum, and dogecoin, per CoinGecko.

International banking group Standard Chartered has predicted solana will grow to $250 by the end of 2026, pointing to a shift in activity from meme coins to solana-stablecoin pairs, aided by AI-driven micropayments.

Meanwhile, the prediction market-implied odds of solana sliding below $60 in 2026 stands at 68% on Wednesday morning, and on the bullish side, traders are pricing in a 48% chance the token will rise higher than $150 in the year. 

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Meanwhile, the prediction market-implied odds of solana sliding below $60 in 2026 stands at 68% on Wednesday morning, and on the bullish side, traders are pricing in a 48% chance the token will rise higher than $150 in the year. 

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Kraken receives approval for “master account” from the Kansas City Fed in first for crypto companies

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City approved a limited purpose account for Kraken Financial, making the exchange the first cryptocurrency company to gain access to the Fed’s payment infrastructure, according to a Wednesday report from The Wall Street Journal. 

The approval “marks the convergence of crypto infrastructure and sovereign financial rails,” according to Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi. With a Federal Reserve master account, Kraken can directly connect to core US payment systems used by traditional banks and credit unions, enabling faster and more efficient fiat movement for Kraken’s institutional clients.

Sethi continued, “This creates a uniquely resilient foundation. It gives us the ability to settle directly on Fedwire, reduce dependency on correspondent banks, and integrate regulated fiat liquidity directly into digital asset markets.”

The approval of a Fed master account comes as Kraken, which was founded in 2011, is preparing for an initial public offering.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid in a press release said the payments landscape is actively evolving. “Throughout this transformation, the integrity and stability of the U.S. payments system remain our priority,” Schmid said.

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Crypto spot ETF flows diverge, a sign of investor rotation

Investors appear to be rotating where they are placing their crypto bets, but not necessarily fleeing the asset class entirely. 

Last month, spot bitcoin ETFs registered $206.5 million in outflows, marking their fourth straight month of redemptions. Ethereum spot ETFs saw even heavier withdrawal as $369.9 million left the investment vehicles, also marking a fourth consecutive monthly outflow. 

Since November, spot bitcoin and ethereum ETFs have posted more than $9.1 billion in cumulative outflows.

Bitcoin and ethereum are the market’s virtual ATMs, according to Chris Soriano, cofounder and chief commercial officer at BridgePort. “It’s no surprise when institutions start laying off risk or meet redemptions, they naturally sell what’s most liquid first,” Soriano told Sherwood News. “This is no different than when a traditional fund manager trims S&P 500 exposure before touching their small-cap growth positions.” 

On the other hand, newer funds based on altcoins haven’t stopped recording monthly green candles. 

Spot XRP ETFs pulled in $58 million last month and have yet to post a single negative month since their launch in November. Spot solana ETFs attracted $63 million and, likewise, remain in the black since their debut in October. 

The outflows of the two largest cryptocurrencies combined with the modest inflows of the two smaller tokens suggest a rotation regime, Soriano argued. “Institutions trimming their core liquid holdings while selectively adding to high-conviction, higher-beta positions where they think there’s more juice in the squeeze. It’s not a contradiction; it’s portfolio mechanics behaving exactly as you’d expect,” Soriano continued.

He added that XRP and solana’s markets are also thinner, which means the same dollar of buying pressure registers as a louder, more persistent inflow signal than it ever would in BTC or ETH.

Nic Roberts-Huntley, CEO and cofounder of Blueprint Finance, told Sherwood that bitcoin and etheruem’s outflows combined with XRP and solana’s inflows “may signal a broader market transition, one where capital increasingly chases specific use cases rather than the entire asset class moving in lockstep.”

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.