TD Cowen lowers Strategy price target while bitcoin continues to rise
The analysts also set a base case assumption of bitcoin hitting $177,000 by December 26, with an upside scenario of $225,000 and a much bleaker downside scenario of $60,000.
TD Cowen analysts lowered their price target on Strategy to $440 from $500, citing its “audacious” bitcoin buying and noting that “greater equity in the mix reduces BTC yield.”
Lance Vitanza, managing director and senior analyst at TD Cowen, wrote in a January 14 note that the company “has not only survived the latest period of price compression; it has leaned into it.”
In the past week, Strategy raised $1.25 billion through the issuance of common stock and its variable-rate Stretch preferred stock, using “all but $0.5 million” to buy 13,627 bitcoin.
Vitanza added that the company remains attractive “for those looking to create bitcoin exposure,” and expects Strategy to now buy 155,000 bitcoin, versus the previous expectation of 90,000. TD Cowen maintained its “buy” rating.
Vitanza said long-term investors (four or more years) who are big believers in bitcoin should focus on the common shares, as “to the extent bitcoin outperforms most other asset classes, MSTR will outperform bitcoin handsomely, in our opinion.”
For risk-averse investors seeking exposure to bitcoin, Vitanza said they should focus on the senior preferred STRF shares.
“These shares are covered 6.4x by the value of the company’s bitcoin holdings, which means bitcoin would have to fall to $14k for the shares to even potentially become impaired,” Vitanza told Sherwood News.
TD Cowen analysts also set a base case assumption of bitcoin hitting $177,000 by December 26, with an upside scenario of $225,000 and a much bleaker downside scenario of $60,000.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin Treasuries released its 2025 Audience Survey, which found that 90% of respondents expect Strategy’s bitcoin holdings to increase, and nearly half believe the company will hold 1 million bitcoin in 2026, up from the current 687,410.
Another 12% expect Strategy to reach 1.5 million BTC, and 6% expect it to hold between 2 and 3 million BTC.
Investors also expect bitcoin digital asset treasuries to double by the end of 2026, with 32.4% expecting total corporate holdings to reach about 1.7 million bitcoin, “close to twice today’s levels.”
