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As it was: A brief history of recorded music

As it was: A brief history of recorded music

The music industry is continuing its comeback according to new data from the RIAA, with recorded music revenues in the US growing 9% in the first half of this year.

As it was

Driving much of that growth was streaming, which has given the music industry a much-needed revival after online piracy hastened the demise of mainstream physical formats like CDs.

That revival has struck a chord with a particular set of investors. In recent years powerhouse investment firms, designed solely to acquire music catalogs, have been paying millions to own the rights to songs from artists such as Bob Dylan, Bruce Springsteen and Shakira, anticipating that streaming is here to stay. Given the chart above, that is potentially quite a bold bet to make.

Even the most dominant listening mediums — vinyl, cassettes, CDs and downloads — have rarely lasted more than a decade. It's hard to imagine what might dethrone streaming, but if we were writing this in the late '80s we would likely have felt the same about the mighty CD.

It's interesting that many of the back catalog deals have been for the music publishing rights. That means the rights to the lyrics, melodies and musical composition of tracks, rather than just specific recordings of songs. Bob Dylan's work is a good example of why that's often been the case — Universal Music estimate his songs have been recorded some 6,000 times. Now every use, play, stream or sample of a Dylan song means a payment for Universal.

Back In Black

Although streaming is the headline act in music these days, it's actually not the fastest growing format. That honor falls to vinyl, which — according to RIAA data  — grew 22% in the first half of the year, building on the $1bn+ in vinyl revenue recorded in the US last year. Nostalgia remains undefeated.

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show “One Battle After Another” leads in Oscar race for Best Picture

It’s finally Oscars week — and with voting officially closed, all that’s left to do is count the ballots and wait to see who wins this Sunday night. 

This year, the acting categories have been the most interesting to watch, especially the showdown between “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet and “Sinners” actor Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor. While Chalamet was long the favorite, Jordan has caught up and overtaken him after winning the Actor Award.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But perhaps the most exciting race of all is for Best Picture. Out of the 10 nominees, the two at the top are Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” both of which are studio releases from Warner Bros. Discovery

Which will win the top prize seems to be split among award pundits and experts. As of Monday afternoon, Gold Derby still has “One Battle After Another” as the front-runner with odds of 76.87%. AwardsWatch, AwardsRadar, and Numlock Awards are also still predicting that “One Battle After Another” will take the statue for Best Picture.

On the other side, reporters from some major trade publications like Variety’s Clayton Davis and The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg predict that “Sinners” will take the top honor.

Odds in the prediction markets currently show that “One Battle After Another” is still ahead of “Sinners,” with the former priced in at 75% while the latter is priced at 23%.

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show Jordan catching up to Chalamet following Actor Awards

The Screen Actors Guild hosted its Actor Awards on Sunday, with the film awards closely monitored ahead of the Academy Awards. The Best Supporting Actor and Actress races remain suspenseful as Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) and Amy Madigan (Weapons) took home the Actor Awards in those respective categories, shifting the odds in both markets predicting who’ll take home the Oscar.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But the most exciting race is for Best Actor. Several award pundits and experts predicted that Marty Supreme star Timothée Chalamet was a lock for the Actor Award despite his loss at the BAFTA Film Awards the previous weekend. But a few suggested that either Blue Moonlead Ethan Hawke or Michael B. Jordan could receive the honor instead. And thats exactly what happened when the Sinners star was announced as the winner.

While some have pointed out that the Actor Awards arent a reliable signifier for who will win the Oscar (Demi Moore and Chalamet received the SAG honors last year, but didn’t win the Oscar), it certainly puts Jordan at a higher advantage and makes the Best Actor race closer than its ever been. Chalamet previously had a higher lead in the prediction markets, but markets are now pricing in a 49% chance he takes the Oscar while Jordan’s odds have risen to 40%.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.