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Purple Hardcover Book
Purple hardcover (Getty Images)

More profitable hardcovers are slowly killing the paperback book

As publishers have tried to avoid printing losses, the number of new adult nonfiction paperback titles has dropped by 42% in the last five years.

It’s a strange time to be an author. Since the pandemic, the average consumer is reading less — one January survey found that almost half (48.5%) of all respondents hadn’t read a single book in over a year — and the acceleration of AI has meant that while established authors face the dilemma of whether to license their work to AI, new authors are contending with an abundance of on-demand literature.

Furthermore, the traditional publishing cycle, which would see a paperback version hit shelves roughly a year after the hardcover’s release, has shifted, as reported by The Wall Street Journal on Monday. Publishers are launching that second round of cheaper prints less frequently, giving authors fewer shots at making sales. Indeed, data from Bowker Books in Print found that the number of new US adult nonfiction paperback titles sunk by 42% in the five years to 2024; the number of equivalent hardcover titles only dropped by 9%.

Meanwhile, per Circana Bookscan, the unit sales of mass-market paperbacks — the soft-covered, pocket-sized titles often spotted on beaches and in airports — fell 19% year over year, compared with modest increases for larger, more durable trade paperbacks, hardcovers, and board books (for children).

Paperback book sales
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Turning the page

Though hardcovers cost more to produce, publishers, authors, agents, and booksellers all tend to make more money on the higher revenue per title. That allows them to cover the author’s advance, as well as the cost of printing, marketing, and distribution, even when shipping fewer units.

Even so, the market for paperbacks just isn’t what it used to be. Audiobooks and e-books have surged in popularity, attracting midlist writers that might usually aim for a paperback release, and online giants like Amazon sometimes charge less for hardcovers than paperbacks depending on their supplies. Costco has given up on bulky books altogether, closing book sections in hundreds of stores.

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show Jordan catching up to Chalamet following Actor Awards

The Screen Actors Guild hosted its Actor Awards on Sunday, with the film awards closely monitored ahead of the Academy Awards. The Best Supporting Actor and Actress races remain suspenseful as Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) and Amy Madigan (Weapons) took home the Actor Awards in those respective categories, shifting the odds in both markets predicting who’ll take home the Oscar.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But the most exciting race is for Best Actor. Several award pundits and experts predicted that Marty Supreme star Timothée Chalamet was a lock for the Actor Award despite his loss at the BAFTA Film Awards the previous weekend. But a few suggested that either Blue Moonlead Ethan Hawke or Michael B. Jordan could receive the honor instead. And thats exactly what happened when the Sinners star was announced as the winner.

While some have pointed out that the Actor Awards arent a reliable signifier for who will win the Oscar (Demi Moore and Chalamet received the SAG honors last year, but didn’t win the Oscar), it certainly puts Jordan at a higher advantage and makes the Best Actor race closer than its ever been. Chalamet previously had a higher lead in the prediction markets, but markets are now pricing in a 49% chance he takes the Oscar while Jordan’s odds have risen to 40%.

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culture
Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show Chalamet in the lead for Best Actor, but Actor Awards could shake up race

The final voting period has kicked off for the 98th Academy Awards. Up until last weekend, many of the main categories seemed like a lock. While “Hamnet” star Jessie Buckley has been the predicted front-runner for the Best Actress statuette for some time now, the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor and Actress races have been upended following the BAFTA Film Awards.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Timothée Chamalet still remains in the lead for the Best Actor prize, his odds have gone down slightly after he lost the BAFTA award, while the wins of Wunmi Mosaku and Sean Penn in the supporting categories have made it a more exciting race. Here’s a roundup of what some experts and awards pundits have said this week:

  • While Gold Derby still has Chalamet as the front-runner for the Actor Award (and the Oscar), his odds have gone down slightly following the BAFTA loss. Surprisingly, the publication has “Weapons” star Amy Madigan in the lead to win the Actor Award for supporting actress, while they have Penn as the front-runner getting the Actor Award for supporting actor.

  • Numlock Awards reports that the BAFTA Awards reshaped the Oscars race, with Chalamet’s loss throwing the Best Actor race “into chaos” following “I Swear” star Robert Aramayo’s win. (He was not eligible to be nominated for an Oscar.)

  • Meanwhile, Variety’s Clayton Davis reports that the Oscars race has officially become “fractured, unpredictable and thrilling” following the BAFTA Awards. However, he predicts that “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan will win the Actor Award this weekend and has heard rumblings that “Blue Moon” star Ethan Hawke could pull a last-minute victory. 

  • IndieWire’s Anne Thompson says that Chalamet is “good to go” for the Actor Awards and the Oscars, adding that the Best Supporting Actress and Actor categories are the ones to keep an eye on.

  • Deadline’s Pete Hammond believes that Chalamet’s BAFTA loss doesn’t necessarily impact the Actor Awards — Aramayo isn’t nominated for an Oscar and the BAFTA Awards tend to favor homegrown actors. He agreed with many of the other pundits in that Mosaku and Penn’s wins add more suspense.

  • AwardsRadar’s Joey Magidson points out that no one has ever won two Actor Awards in a row, which could open Chalamet up to an upset win from Hawke. 

  • Meanwhile, AwardsWatch’s Erik Anderson has Chalamet as a lock for the Actor Award, though he lists Jordan as the follow-up should there be a surprise win in that category.

The Actor Awards are on Sunday, and whoever wins that evening could lock in the fate of the actors in the lead and supporting Oscar categories.

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