Giants' quarterback Daniel Jones, the most expensive starting QB-per-touchdown in the NFL (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Million-dollar touchdowns

How expensive is each NFL quarterback, based on last season's production?

A look at the league's starting quarterbacks' contracts as compared to last season's stats.

9/9/24 3:51PM

The NFL is BACK, and once again, my beloved Falcons have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the Bears have found new ways to win despite nonexistent quarterback play, and Daniel Jones was, well, Daniel Jones.

Of course, the only group more excited about the start of the season than fans like myself are the league's quarterbacks, 28 of whom will make at least $10 million dollars this year.

After an offseason filled with record-setting quarterback contracts, I wanted to break down just how expensive these contracts are and give a QB value rating by comparing this year's pay to last season's passing yards and total touchdowns. The table below shows this year's income and last year's stats for the league's starting quarterbacks, as well as backups who are on more expensive deals than their starting QBs.

For the sake of this exercise, I only included quarterbacks with previous starting experience in the NFL (excluding rookie starters, for example). Players who missed part of their last season, like Kyler Murray, who only started eight games last year, have had their stats pro-rated to model their expected production over a 17-game season.

While the Packers' Jordan Love leads the NFL in dollars per passing yard, Daniel Jones, who had three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) through six games last year, is in a league of his own on dollars per expected touchdown:

Meanwhile, Brock Purdy, who led the 49ers to the Super Bowl last year, looks like a bargain at $28,093 per touchdown. In fact, eight starting quarterbacks in college football's Southeastern Conference currently earn more from Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals than Purdy makes from his contract with the 49ers:

For Purdy's sake, hopefully he can build on last season's momentum and lock in a more lucrative contract extension. His current contract, which expires after next season, would only pay him $1.1 million in 2025.

The Giants, who took a ~$47.9 million 2024 salary cap hit on Daniel Jones' contract, might look to cut their losses after this season if production doesn't improve quickly.

Millie Giles

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This year, the acting categories have been the most interesting to watch, especially the showdown between “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet and “Sinners” actor Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor. While Chalamet was long the favorite, Jordan has caught up and overtaken him after winning the Actor Award.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But perhaps the most exciting race of all is for Best Picture. Out of the 10 nominees, the two at the top are Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” both of which are studio releases from Warner Bros. Discovery.

Which will win the top prize seems to be split among award pundits and experts. As of Monday afternoon, Gold Derby still has “One Battle After Another” as the front-runner with odds of 76.87%. AwardsWatch, AwardsRadar, and Numlock Awards are also still predicting that “One Battle After Another” will take the statue for Best Picture.

On the other side, reporters from some major trade publications like Variety’s Clayton Davis and The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg predict that “Sinners” will take the top honor.

Odds in the prediction markets currently show that “One Battle After Another” is still ahead of “Sinners,” with the former priced in at 75% while the latter is priced at 23%.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But the most exciting race is for Best Actor. Several award pundits and experts predicted that “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet was a lock for the Actor Award despite his loss at the BAFTA Film Awards the previous weekend. But a few suggested that either “Blue Moon” lead Ethan Hawke or Michael B. Jordan could receive the honor instead. And that’s exactly what happened when the “Sinners” star was announced as the winner.

While some have pointed out that the Actor Awards aren’t a reliable signifier for who will win the Oscar (Demi Moore and Chalamet received the SAG honors last year, but didn’t win the Oscar), it certainly puts Jordan at a higher advantage and makes the Best Actor race closer than it’s ever been. Chalamet previously had a higher lead in the prediction markets, but markets are now pricing in a 49% chance he takes the Oscar while Jordan’s odds have risen to 40%.

How expensive is each NFL quarterback, based on last season's production?

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