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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets give slight edge to Netflix in Warner Bros. battle after eventful week

The ongoing bidding war between Paramount and Netflix for the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery had some significant news this week that could change the outcome:  

  • Things kicked off Tuesday, when WBD said in a statement it would resume talks with Paramount Skydance to consider its best and final offer after Netflix allowed a seven-day waiver. The WBD board continues to “unanimously recommend” the merger with Netflix, while the streaming service will retain its rights to match or exceed any forthcoming offer from Paramount. The negotiation period ends on February 23.

  • IndieWire reporter Brian Welk talked to a few experts about whether the new developments bring clarity to the ongoing bidding war. One professor said without Paramount offering its “best and final offer,” the company loses credibility, while another professor said it makes Netflix look even more confident. 

  • Lightshed Partners analyst Richard Greenfield said on his podcast that Paramount will have to raise its offer to as high as $36 to $37 per share. (The company has stuck to $30.) In comparison, Netflix’s initial offer is for $27.75 a share to buy the studio and streaming service, while Paramount is bidding to buy the whole company. 

  • Semafor reported Thursday morning that some Democratic senators are “unhappy” with the fact that Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison refused to attend a hearing two weeks ago, and could launch an investigation into the deal if they retake the Senate.

  • Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Netflix has “ample cash” and could increase its offer for WBD if Paramount beefs up its own offer, according to sources. 

  • Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos recently appeared on a recent episode of “The Town with Matthew Belloni” to reiterate that he doesn’t plan on ruining WBD’s theatrical business model and promised to keep the 45-day theatrical window for WBD films, which could appease opposition from theater owners.

  • Variety reported that there’s been a shift among WBD employees who now support Netflix’s acquisition, though there’s still some skepticism among others.

WBD shareholders are still set to vote on the proposed Netflix merger next month, on March 20. Despite the renewed talks with Parmount, as of Friday at 12:45 p.m. ET, prediction markets speculating on who will ultimately come out on top have recently flipped to give the edge back to Netflix, pricing in a 46% chance over Paramount’s 44% odds. 

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Drake whiffs on an expected No. 1 on Spotify

Drake started at the bottom and he’s here, but not quite at the top... of Spotify, at least.

It’s been nearly three weeks since Drake dropped his three surprise albums — “Iceman,” “Habibti,” and “Maid of Honour.” Heading into the month, prediction markets were rating it a near certainty, a 98% chance, that Drake’s sonic onslaught was enough to snag the No. 1 slot on Spotify at least once in June.

But, while he surpassed the late Michael Jackson and took up three slots on the Billboard album chart at once, his newly released songs haven’t quite cracked the popular music-streaming platform’s top charts, and market seem to think the moment has passed.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Spotify’s “Top Songs - Global” chart currently show that Jackson’s “Billie Jean,” which is more than four decades old, Justin Bieber’s “Beauty and a Beat,” which climbed back to the top of Spotify charts following his Coachella set in the spring, Olivia Rodrigo’s new angsty love song “The Cure,” and BTS’s “Swim” are all ahead of Drake’s “STFU Janice” from his “Iceman” album.

While Spotify previously reported last month that Drake’s “Make Them Cry” was the most streamed album in a single day this year, that was later revealed to be a data error.

Prediction markets currently show traders are betting there’s only a 15% chance Drake will have a No. 1 song on Spotify in June.

Meanwhile, Taylor Swift is in the lead at 98% — a day before the release of her new original song “I Knew It, I Knew You,” which she wrote and performed for Disney and Pixar’s upcoming “Toy Story 5” — followed by Olivia Rodrigo, whose highly anticipated album “You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love” comes out next Friday.

Loading...
 

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Spotify’s “Top Songs - Global” chart currently show that Jackson’s “Billie Jean,” which is more than four decades old, Justin Bieber’s “Beauty and a Beat,” which climbed back to the top of Spotify charts following his Coachella set in the spring, Olivia Rodrigo’s new angsty love song “The Cure,” and BTS’s “Swim” are all ahead of Drake’s “STFU Janice” from his “Iceman” album.

While Spotify previously reported last month that Drake’s “Make Them Cry” was the most streamed album in a single day this year, that was later revealed to be a data error.

Prediction markets currently show traders are betting there’s only a 15% chance Drake will have a No. 1 song on Spotify in June.

Meanwhile, Taylor Swift is in the lead at 98% — a day before the release of her new original song “I Knew It, I Knew You,” which she wrote and performed for Disney and Pixar’s upcoming “Toy Story 5” — followed by Olivia Rodrigo, whose highly anticipated album “You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love” comes out next Friday.

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