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Biopick me: Playing real people helps your Best Actor odds

Biopick me: Playing real people helps your Best Actor odds

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Life stories are like a box of chocolates… and 2023 is shaping up to be a year chock-full of biographical movies.

In the fallout of Oppenheimer-mania, Netflix has revealed the trailer for upcoming biopic ‘Maestro', directed by and starring Bradley Cooper as the famed composer and conductor Leonard Bernstein. Set to premiere in November, going head-to-head with Ridley Scott’s historic blockbuster ‘Napoleon’, Maestro will join some 15 biographical films that have been released so far this year.

If you’re not overly familiar with Bernstein’s work, which includes writing the score for the Broadway musical West Side Story, you’re not alone: Bernstein’s Wikipedia page has been viewed over 30,000 times in the past 24 hours.

Bi-epics

Since the Academy Awards began in 1929, biopics have received 126 Best Picture nominations, winning a total of 22. Actors also seem to fare better when they star in movie memoirs: performers playing real people have been nominated 359 times at the Oscars, with 8 of those in 2021 alone.

However, biopics have only recently started to match their critical acclaim with commercial success. Since 2010, 8 biographical movies have seen their protagonists win Best Actor — 4 of which, including 2019’s Bohemian Rhapsody, grossed over $100 million. In the 30 years before that, though, only 11 biopics scooped Best Actor Oscars, and not one of these met the $100 million threshold.

Ironically, the two highest-grossing movies to have received the Best Actor award, Forrest Gump in 1995 and Joker in 2020, both place a single character’s life story at the heart of the action, albeit a fictional one.

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Prediction markets show “One Battle After Another” leads in Oscar race for Best Picture

It’s finally Oscars week — and with voting officially closed, all that’s left to do is count the ballots and wait to see who wins this Sunday night. 

This year, the acting categories have been the most interesting to watch, especially the showdown between “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet and “Sinners” actor Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor. While Chalamet was long the favorite, Jordan has caught up and overtaken him after winning the Actor Award.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But perhaps the most exciting race of all is for Best Picture. Out of the 10 nominees, the two at the top are Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” both of which are studio releases from Warner Bros. Discovery

Which will win the top prize seems to be split among award pundits and experts. As of Monday afternoon, Gold Derby still has “One Battle After Another” as the front-runner with odds of 76.87%. AwardsWatch, AwardsRadar, and Numlock Awards are also still predicting that “One Battle After Another” will take the statue for Best Picture.

On the other side, reporters from some major trade publications like Variety’s Clayton Davis and The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg predict that “Sinners” will take the top honor.

Odds in the prediction markets currently show that “One Battle After Another” is still ahead of “Sinners,” with the former priced in at 75% while the latter is priced at 23%.

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