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The employment recovery: Not every industry has rebounded equally

The employment recovery: Not every industry has rebounded equally

Long COVID

It’s been almost three years since the WHO declared that COVID-19 was a global health emergency and, whilst life has largely returned to normal for many — with  Biden declaring in September that the pandemic ‘is over’ — industries like the arts, entertainment and hospitality are still struggling to fully recover.

Closures at restaurants, theaters, cinemas, hotels, and concert venues show up dramatically in the data from the BLS, as employment in the arts and entertainment industry cratered, down ~52% from January to May 2020. That was the sharpest of any sector, followed closely by the accommodation and food services industry, which shed nearly 7 million jobs over the same few months.

Understandably, these industries have taken the longest to bounce back to near pre-pandemic levels too, but they aren't the only ones still suffering. Although much smaller in size relatively, the mining and logging industry is in the worst shape, with employment still down 7% compared to Feb 2020.

Some industries however, were more elastic. Total employment in some white-collar industries recovered to its previous peak before the end of 2021, and the transport & warehousing industry has boomed — with employment up 12% on Feb 2020 figures. For the US economy as a whole, total nonfarm employment numbers surpassed their Feb 2020 peak this summer.

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Prediction markets show “One Battle After Another” leads in Oscar race for Best Picture

It’s finally Oscars week — and with voting officially closed, all that’s left to do is count the ballots and wait to see who wins this Sunday night. 

This year, the acting categories have been the most interesting to watch, especially the showdown between “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet and “Sinners” actor Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor. While Chalamet was long the favorite, Jordan has caught up and overtaken him after winning the Actor Award.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But perhaps the most exciting race of all is for Best Picture. Out of the 10 nominees, the two at the top are Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” both of which are studio releases from Warner Bros. Discovery

Which will win the top prize seems to be split among award pundits and experts. As of Monday afternoon, Gold Derby still has “One Battle After Another” as the front-runner with odds of 76.87%. AwardsWatch, AwardsRadar, and Numlock Awards are also still predicting that “One Battle After Another” will take the statue for Best Picture.

On the other side, reporters from some major trade publications like Variety’s Clayton Davis and The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg predict that “Sinners” will take the top honor.

Odds in the prediction markets currently show that “One Battle After Another” is still ahead of “Sinners,” with the former priced in at 75% while the latter is priced at 23%.

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