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Luke Kawa

A surprisingly strong June jobs report puts recession calls and Fed cuts on ice, for now

Start your long weekend, go to the beach, fire up your barbecue:

A surprisingly solid June nonfarm payrolls report suggests the US labor market isn’t doing nearly as bad as the grind higher in continuing jobless claims would indicate, while also putting to bed any notion of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July.

Nonfarm job growth came in at 147,000, well ahead of estimates for 106,000.

The unemployment rate, which was expected to rise to 4.3%, actually dipped a tick to 4.1%!

Two-year Treasury yields are making a straight-line jump higher, from about 3.76% prior to the report up to a peak of 3.91%, as Fed easing gets priced out. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF, which was modestly higher in the run-up to the data, extended gains.

If there’s a fly in the ointment, it’s that private sector job monthly growth was the lowest since October. But all in all, any fears of the US job market being on a cliff’s edge are going down on this data.

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Luke Kawa
7/13/26
Meet the newly public, Bezos-backed company that’s recreating the sun and stars

General Fusion CEO Greg Twinney spoke with Sherwood News from the Nasdaq during the stock’s first day of trading.

Web Summit Vancouver 2026 - Day Three
markets
J. Edward Moreno

SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

Luke Kawa
7/2/26
US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%

Job growth was 57,000. Analysts foresaw job growth of 113,000; prediction markets were more optimistic, looking for job growth above 125,000 but below 150,000.

Floridians Seek Employment Opportunities At Job Fair In Sunrise
Luke Kawa
7/1/26
Meta surges on report it’s starting a cloud business to sell excess AI compute

The story of the hyperscalers in 2026 has largely been “the beatings will continue until the cash flow outlook improves;” this could help change the story for Meta. Or not.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg visits U.S. Capitol for Senate meetings
markets
Paige Oamek

Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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