markets

Matt Phillips6/13/25

Adobe posts solid quarter, but market doubts its AI optimism

Adobe’s fiscal Q2 profit and revenue were both better than expected and the company lifted its full-year sales and earnings guidance, but the stock is still down a fairly gnarly 7% in early trading.

Wall Street clearly wants to know if Adobe’s efforts to embed generative-AI offerings into its software packages can actually generate additional sales and profits. But the takeaway from Adobe’s numbers — released yesterday after the close — is essentially TBD.

On the bright side, today’s tumble in Adobe shares is only half the roughly 14% plunge that the company experienced after its two previous quarterly reports in December and March. So I guess that’s progress?

Adobe Keeps Pivoting as AI Transforms Customer Needs

Adobe Keeps Pivoting as AI Transforms Customer Needs

On the bright side, today’s tumble in Adobe shares is only half the roughly 14% plunge that the company experienced after its two previous quarterly reports in December and March. So I guess that’s progress?

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Micron reports another stellar quarter and blowout guidance

The memory chip specialist did it again.

7th China International Import Expo (CIIE) Opens In Shanghai

Luke Kawa, Tasha Matsumoto

Stocks sink as inflation fears rise

Stocks sank after a hotter-than-expected producer price index reading as well as a higher inflation forecast from the Fed amid rising energy prices.

Brown bear on a rock

Hyperscalers and hard hats

If you build it, gains will come

Construction workers

Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged; dot plot still signals lower rates in the cards for 2026

A relatively dovish reaction function from the US central bank.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Holds An News Conference On Interest Rates

markets

Matt Phillips15h

Constellation, Talen, and NRG surge as BNP analysts see “golden (AI)ge” ahead for them

Power producers Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and NRG jumped Wednesday, benefiting in part from a rosy write-up by analysts at BNP Paribas, who launched coverage of all three at “outperform” and argued that the AI energy trade — a big AI-related winner in recent years that has lagged a bit recently — is due for a second wind.

That view was in a broad note on the independent power producer segment of utilities industry that the analysts published Wednesday, titled “The Golden (AI)ge of IPPs.”

Here’s the gist of it:

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

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