Citi analyst Scott Chronert Investor exhaustion

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After volatile year, Citi analyst sees risks of investor exhaustion

Citi US Equity Strategist Scott Chronert laid out his case for the markets to largely chop sideways for the rest of the year.

Matt Phillips

11/24/25 2:48PM

Despite a solid rally on Monday, stocks are still on track to end November in the red — the first monthly loss for the S&P 500 since April.

And Citi US Equity Strategist Scott Chronert thinks investors may try to close the books on 2025 early and book gains, rather than hope to ride the seasonal upswing in stocks that sometimes appears late in the year — the vaunted Santa Claus rally.

“We’ve had to navigate so much this year in the equity markets, beginning with DeepSeek, tariffs, and other Trump administration policy issues, OBBA,” Chronert said in a telephone interview Monday. “I think we might just have a very exhausted investor base that’s happy to lock things in for the year.”

In a note he published on Monday, titled “Exhaustion,” he spelled out the thinking behind his call for the markets to largely chop sideways into year-end, bringing the S&P 500 in for a landing at around his target of 6,600 for the year. (It’s currently hovering around 6,700 shortly after 1:30 p.m. ET.)

Supporting evidence for such a view, he says, can be found in part in the market’s reaction in recent weeks to strong earnings results from giant tech companies like Nvidia, or to a lesser extent, Palantir Technologies.

Both saw share prices drop despite objectively excellent numbers.

That divergence between financial results and market reaction could be a sign of growing caution from investors about the large-cap, tech-based AI trade that has supercharged stock returns over the last two years and generated the best two-year gains since the dot-com boom.

“I think the days of the Mag 7 as a thing are behind us,” Chronert said, citing the dispersion of returns for the group this year.

(Meta, Amazon, and Tesla have relatively modest gains. Alphabet and Nvidia have killed it. Microsoft and Apple are somewhere in the middle.)

“The Mag 7 is acting much differently and idiosyncratically this year,” Chronert said. “I think as we go down this AI path, the market’s telling us that everybody isn’t going to be a winner. It’s going to be more differentiated.”

If there is an upside risk for the market that could generate a year-end rally, Chronert says, it’ll likely be tied in some part to the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.

Expectations for rate cuts at the US central bank’s final meeting for the year have fluctuated pretty wildly over the last month, amid growing uncertainty over the outlook for the job market and inflation tied to the statistical blackout during the US government shutdown.

“There’s an opportunity for a strong finish, but it probably comes with another Fed rate cut,” he said. “I’m pretty comfortable, and it’s not a bad thing, if we trade sideways into the end of the year and then reengage next year.”

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Sandisk rides Wall Street price target hikes toward new record

Sandisk leapt Friday, riding a resurgent wave of AI-related market exuberance as well as two price target hikes from Wall Street analysts.

Goldman Sachs lifted its target for the stock to $320 from $280, while keeping a “buy” rating on the stock. Mizhuho lifted its target to a Street high of $410 from its previous target of $250, while maintaining an “outperform” rating on the shares.

Long considered a maker of commodity data storage products, Sandisk was spun off by Western Digital in an IPO in February.

When it dawned on the market sometime in the fall that the AI boom would mean an explosion in demand for data storage, Sandisk shares went parabolic.

Its more than 350% run-up between the ends of August and December led to Sandisk’s inclusion in the S&P 500. And its 560% gain for the year made it the index’s top performer.

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It looks like the stock market was expecting some tariff relief

The S&P 500 briefly dipped into negative territory and tariff-sensitive stocks swung from big gains to big losses after the Supreme Court declined to give a ruling on tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under the IEEPA.

A basket of “Trump Tariff Losers” stocks compiled by UBS, which includes Under Armour, American Eagle, Yeti, Mattel, and Deckers Outdoor, was up as much as 1.5% in early trading before falling as much as 1.7% after news of the lack of news surfaced.

The good news is that for the market as a whole (and even this group in particular), the pain seems to have been short-lived, with both bouncing back to erase losses.

It’s a decent little snapshot or case study to show that, yes, as prediction markets imply, the stock market is pricing in tariff relief.

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Amazon pharmacy to begin offering home delivery for Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill

Amazon Pharmacy announced Friday that it will offer Novo Nordisk’s recently approved weight-loss pill Wegovy, the newest frontier in the drugmaker’s push toward direct-to-consumer options.

Amazon said it will offer delivery for the pill through insurance and cash-pay options. Novo’s cash-pay price for the pill is $149 a month — less than half of what its injectables cost through the same channel.

Novo has partnered with big-box stores like Costco and Walmart as well as several big telehealth companies, including Ro, Weight Watchers, and LifeMD, to distribute the pill. This comes as the Danish pharma giant is trying to regain ground after Eli Lilly surpassed it in market share, in large part because of its early emphasis on direct-to-consumer channels.

The Food and Drug Administration approved Novo’s weight-loss pill in December, making it the first approved weight-loss pill to go to market. It has the same active ingredient, semaglutide, as its injectable products, Ozempic and Wegovy. Lilly’s oral version, orforglipron, is expected to come to market later this year.

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Intel gains after a favorable post from Trump

Intel continued its strong 2026 start by rising early Friday, following a favorable online post from President Trump, whose administration partially nationalized the ailing American chip giant in August.

In a Truth Social post Thursday afternoon, he praised CEO Lip-Bu Tan, boasted about the amount of money the government’s 10% investment in the company has made, and said, “Our Country is determined to bring leading edge Chip Manufacturing back to America, and that is exactly what is happening!!!”

Even after adjusting for the Trumpian tendency toward hyperbole, that last comment will be intriguing to Intel watchers. The company’s search to make deals with external customers willing to use its next-generation contract chip manufacturing business, crucial to the future of Intel’s ailing foundry business, will likely be a key driver of the stock price this year.

It’s not nuts to think that having the US government as a shareholder and the president as an active cheerleader — especially one who’s not shy about putting pressure on private sector companies to get what he wants — could be helpful in corralling reticent foundry customers.

Intel is up roughly 16% year to date and has more than doubled over the last year.

Intel stock rises after Trump touts 'very successful' CEO, applauds government's investment