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Analyst: “A bull market in uncertainty”

“This too shall pass, at which point markets will rebound.”

4/9/25 2:10PM

With stocks whipsawing on Wednesday, Scott Clemons, partner and chief investment strategist at the venerable Wall Street firm Brown Brothers Harriman, took a few minutes to chat about the wild week since President Trump has unleashed the tariffs.

Shortly after our chat, Trump appeared to announce a partial pause on tariffs for some countries, while simultaneously unleashing a still higher levy of 125% on China “effective immediately.” Stocks exploded in response, with the S&P 500 up 6% in the immediate aftermath of the announcement and shares of some Trump-related stocks like Tesla up more than 10% at moments. Other megacap tech stocks like Apple and Nvidia were also up more than 10%.

Relief rally aside, for Clemons, the key question is what lasting impact the White House’s erratic, and what some Trump supporters describe as destructive, approach to managing the economy will have.

Here are highlights, edited for clarity and concision.

Sherwood News: So, what’s the mood out there among investors?

“This is what I’m hearing from clients: right now, it’s all about the tariff tantrum. But even if that were to go away and be suspended or be lifted or whatever it is, what’s left is the crisis of competence.
What might next week bring? This week it’s tariffs; next week it’s some regulatory decision. That unpredictability and uncertainty is paralyzing business decisions.
And it’s paralyzing for consumer decisions, as well. Think about a family deciding, maybe we don’t need to take that vacation, buy the new car, renovate the kitchen. When you aggregate all of those things up, that is the recipe for a recession.
I believe we’re going to see in the second quarter a real drag on the real economy as businesses delay spending, they delay hiring, and they delay investments simply because of the uncertainty and the anxiety.”

SN: From an investment perspective, the markets have done well during economic downturns in the past. Do you think that could play out this time?

“This too shall pass, at which point markets will rebound. What I’m interested in as an economist and an investor is what is the lasting ripple effect from the uncertainty that remains behind? That, I think, could be a real break on both investing and on the economy for some time to come.”

SN: Are there any particular sectors or markets where you’re looking to see evidence of that lasting impact?

“We’re going to get a real good insight to that starting tomorrow, when we get first-quarter earnings reports. Actual first-quarter earnings are so ancient history, they’re almost irrelevant.
But how companies talk about their positioning in this uncertainty is going to be interesting. So, I’m listening for companies talking about delayed hiring plans or delayed expansion plans, or, of course, how they’re dealing with the pricing uncertainty that tariffs bring.
There’s a bull market in uncertainty, at least, if there’s not a bull market in anything else.”

Luke Kawa

Stocks sink and oil spikes as traders price in enduring, worsening Mideast war

Stocks and oil are building in more risk premium to deal with the perceived increased probability of a more drawn-out disruption to global energy supplies and shipments.

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Samsung’s massive Q1 fails to lift Sandisk, other data center plays

Almost all memory stocks slipped Tuesday, despite getting a positive update on the massive flood of money pouring into the sector from the AI build-out, as the potential escalation of the US war with Iran Tuesday evening overshadowed Samsung’s blowout numbers.

Korean chip giant Samsung Electronics reported preliminary Q1 results showing operating profit up by 755% compared to Q1 2025, trouncing pretty elevated expectations for a gain of about 550%.

Samsung is the world’s largest producer of NAND and DRAM chips. Once considered low-value commodity inputs to tech products, NAND and DRAM prices have exploded over the last six months amid a hyperscaler scramble to secure chips that can manage the surfeit of data produced by AI.

The same dynamics have made memory plays like Sandisk, Western Digital, and Micron some of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last 12 months.

But other than Seagate Technology Holdings, those stocks were down Tuesday as of 11:15 a.m. ET, as the surge in oil prices and ongoing war with Iran muted much of the AI data center trade excitement. Bellwethers like Nvidia and hyperscalers like Oracle and Meta were struggling early, as were data center input makers like Corning and Coherent, AI power plays like GE Vernova, Vertiv Holdings, and even hard-hat builders of the shells that house all those AI servers.

On the other hand, some so-called optical stocks — makers of fiber-optic connections that quickly shift data between users, hyperscalers, and all around data centers themselves — were up. Lumentum and Arista Networks, two popular optical stocks, were showing resilience.

Samsung flags eightfold jump in quarterly profit as AI chip demand pumps prices

The same dynamics have made memory plays like Sandisk, Western Digital, and Micron some of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last 12 months.

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Paramount surges on bullish options activity, 1 day after $24 billion Gulf backing report

Paramount Skydance shares surged more than 9% shortly after markets opened on Tuesday, on pace for their best day since news that the company had emerged victorious in the Warner Bros. bidding war broke in late February.

The entertainment giant is being propelled by bullish options activity, with about 17,000 call options having changed hands as of 10:03 a.m. ET, already ahead of the 20-day average for a full session.

The market move comes a day after reports that three Gulf sovereign wealth funds would back Paramount’s offer for WBD to the tune of $24 billion. Those working on the deal don’t expect the Gulf funds’ involvement to spark any additional regulatory reviews.

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Intel rises on news it will join Elon Musk’s Terafab project

US chipmaking icon Intel announced that it’s joining Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s ambitious Terafab chipmaking project, sending the stock up early Tuesday.

As Sherwood News’ Rani Molla reported late last month:

“Terafab aims to bring all aspects of chip production — from design to fabrication to packaging — under one roof. Musk said the facility is intended to produce up to 1 terawatt of compute annually. The plant would manufacture inference chips for Tesla’s Robotaxis and Optimus robots, as well as custom AI chips for space-based applications, including solar-powered AI satellites. Morgan Stanley estimates the project could cost $35 billion to $45 billion in capital expenditure, likely shared between Tesla and SpaceX.”

That would be a healthy chunk of change for Intel to access, and could offer an opportunity to turn around both the finances and the narrative surrounding Intel’s struggling foundry chipmaking operations.

Intel is proud to join the Terafab project with @SpaceX, @xAI, and @Tesla to help refactor silicon fab technology.

Our ability to design, fabricate, and package ultra-high-performance chips at scale will help accelerate Terafab’s aim to produce 1 TW/year of compute to power… pic.twitter.com/2vUmXn0YhH
— Intel (@intel) April 7, 2026

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US stock futures slump, oil jumps after Iranian media reports explosions on Kharg Island

Stocks returned to negative territory in premarket trading and oil futures jumped after Iranian state-sponsored media said that explosions were heard on Kharg Island.

The Mehr News Agency, which reported this at 6:25 a.m. ET, did not comment on the source of these explosions. Fox News reported that the US targeted military installations, and unintentionally hit a landing dock. Axios also reported that the strikes were intended to hit military targets, citing a US official.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF turned from slightly positive to down about 0.5% in the wake of this report, and extended losses after President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that “a whole civilization will die tonight.”

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures traded about 3% higher to $116 per barrel after having previously been roughly flat.

Trump’s Tuesday morning post seemingly reaffirms his commitment to escalate attacks on Iran, including targets that can be considered war crimes, if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. His current deadline, which has previously been pushed back on multiple occasions, is 8 p.m. on Tuesday night.

On Sunday, the president’s Truth Social account posted that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran.”

Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports. Strikes that reduce Iran’s ability to ship oil would further disrupt energy markets, which have been roiled by the war and the limited movement of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point. Initial US attacks on Kharg Island in March were said to have hit military sites rather than energy infrastructure.