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Apple CEO Tim Cook
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Analyst slaps a rare “sell” rating on Apple

Apple watcher Craig Moffett made the call in light of what he calls “a steady drumbeat of bad news.”

Matt Phillips

Don’t be fooled by the 10% run-up in share price over the last three months, says tech analyst Craig Moffett. The upturn in Apple has come amid a drip, drip, drip of downbeat headlines that threaten to weigh on the company going forward, he wrote.

“A Federal Judge (Amit Mehta) had declared the payments Google makes to Apple each year for Google’s preferred (default) search position to be illegal. Apple’s position in China has steadily weakened. The Vision Pro, already expected to be something of a bust, has disappointed even the low expectations that had been set for it. And while the incoming Trump Administration is likely to exempt Apple from import tariffs, there is a genuine risk that Apple will be targeted with retaliatory tariffs in countries negatively impacted by U.S. import duties in unrelated categories.”

But most worrisome, Moffett says, is the “the lukewarm (we’re being charitable here) response consumers have given Apple’s first suite of AI features.”

For the record, as of yesterday, two-thirds of the analysts covering Apple still have a buy or overweight rating on the stock, though that’s down from nearly 80% that saw Apple as a buy back in January 2023. And while the Street seems bullish on the surface, the average 12-month price target is less than 2% above where the iPhone maker is currently trading.

Moffett is the senior research analyst at MoffettNathanson, an independent research provider specializing in the TMT sectors. His price target of $188 implies a more than 20% decline for Apple.

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Memory stocks jump after Japanese chipmaker posts robust guidance

Memory stocks have their mojo back after Japanese chipmaker Kioxia gave strong forecasts along with positive color on AI-driven demand.

The company, which specializes in NAND flash memory, provided guidance for full-year operating income and sales that exceeded analysts’ expectations.

While Kioxia normally signs agreements for customers on a 12-month basis, management indicated that some now want to lock in supply for 2027 and 2028, a testament to the seeming longevity of the supply/demand imbalance in memory. That imbalance is also prompting the company to enjoy “a very sharp increase in selling price,” per CFO Hideki Hanazawa.

Sandisk, a NAND seller which recently extended its joint venture with Kioxia for manufacturing, is the biggest premarket gainer in the memory chip space. Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings are also trading to the upside.

Memory stocks had previously seen some of the steam come out of their terrific start to 2026, after popular momentum trades came under pressure and investors tried catching a fallen knife in beaten-down parts of the market, eroding some enthusiasm for the cohort. But they’ve rebounded smartly in the past couple of sessions, thanks to fresh bad news for software companies; Micron indicating that shipments of next-gen, high-bandwidth chips have started ahead of schedule; and now this positive read-through from Kioxia.

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SoftBank’s OpenAI investment gains drive fourth consecutive profitable quarter

SoftBank is up 4% in premarket trading on Thursday as the Japanese conglomerate announced a net profit of ¥248.6 billion ($1.6 billion) in its fiscal third quarter, buoyed by a $4.2 billion valuation gain in its OpenAI investment.

SoftBank marked its fourth consecutive quarter of profits, swinging from a ¥369 billion ($2.4 billion) loss in the same quarter the year before.

The Masayoshi Son-led firm has invested a total of $34.6 billion in OpenAI so far, amounting to an ~11% stake in the startup, per its earnings presentation. The company is also reportedly looking to invest as much as $30 billion more in the ChatGPT-maker in a funding round that would value it at up to $830 billion.

SoftBank is accumulating more dry powder to fund its investments in OpenAI and other AI-adjacent ventures. Management shared on Thursday that they sold $12.7 billion worth of T-Mobile shares between June and December 2025, offloading an additional $2.3 billion in January of this year. In addition, they borrowed another $400 billion via a margin loan that uses SoftBank Corp. shares in December.

Since SoftBank started investing in OpenAI through the end of 2025, the company has enjoyed a $19.8 billion investment gain in total. The OpenAI investment, alongside other investments in its second tech-heavy Vision Fund, drove a $6.5 billion increase in fair value for the quarter — helping to outweigh a $4.1 billion loss in its first Vision Fund, “primarily due to share price declines of Coupang and DiDi.”

Softbank
Source: Company filing

BTIG analyst Jesse Sobelson estimates that the ChatGPT maker now represents 30% of SoftBank’s net asset value. The company’s stock has also almost doubled in the past year as retail investors piled into SoftBank to get pseudo-exposure to the now-private OpenAI.

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AST SpaceMobile slides on $1B convertible note offering, debt repurchase, and stock sale

AST SpaceMobile has slumped 8% in pre-market trading after the company unveiled a trio of financing moves aimed at raising fresh capital to expand its satellite network while paying down existing, costlier loans.

After Wednesday’s close, the satellite network company said it intends to raise $1 billion through a private offering of convertible senior notes due 2036 to qualified institutional buyers. Initial purchasers may also buy up to $150 million in additional notes by February 20, 2026. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including accelerating AST’s global satellite deployment, investing in US government space opportunities, and reducing higher-interest debt, per the release.

In a separate press release, AST also said it intends to repurchase up to $300 million of its existing convertible senior notes due 2032, including $50 million of its 4.25% notes and $250 million of its 2.375% notes. The buybacks will be funded through concurrent issuances of class A common stock.

All transactions were “subject to market conditions and other factors,” the company added.

Earlier on Wednesday, AST shares had briefly climbed after the company announced it had successfully completed the “unfolding of its next-generation BlueBird 6 satellite.” However, the multi-layered financing plan announced later in the day appears to have spooked investors, pushing the stock lower in after-hours trading and into today.

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Cisco beats expectations for Q2 sales and EPS; Q3 margin forecast is light

Cisco is dropping in Thursday’s premarket, down 8% at 4:45 a.m. ET, after a middling Q3 margin forecast offset sales and earnings beats in its second-quarter results yesterday.

For the fiscal second quarter of 2026, the computer networking equipment giant reported:

  • Non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.04 vs. the $1.02 expected by Wall Street analysts, according to FactSet.

  • Sales of $15.35 billion vs. the $15.11 billion consensus expectation.

  • AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers of $2.1 billion vs. $1.3 billion in the previous quarter.

  • Revenue guidance for fiscal Q3 of between $15.4 billion and $15.6 billion vs. $15.19 billion consensus estimate. 

  • Adjusted gross margin guidance for fiscal Q3 of 65.5% to 66.5%, compared with analysts’ forecasts for 68.2%.

  • Fiscal year 2026 sales guidance of $61.2 billion to $61.7 billion vs. previous guidance of between $60.2 billion and $61.0 billion.

Along with other companies like Lumentum, Corning, and new S&P 500 member Ciena, which provide things like the wiring and networking equipment needed to connect server racks, Cisco shares had been enjoing a strong start to 2026 as the AI data center boom continues to roll.

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