Nebius slumps after Q4 results trail estimates

Nebius tumbled in early trading after reporting underwhelming Q4 results before managing to pare much of those losses.

In the final three months of the year, revenues of $227.7 million were shy of the $247.5 million consensus estimate. Adjusted EBITDA of $15 million also trailed expectations for $22.55 million.

Founder and CEO Arkady Volozh indicated that the neocloud ended 2025 with roughly 170 megawatts of active power capacity, ahead of its 100-megawatt target, and “is on track to end the year with annualized run-rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion.” Management raised its capacity guidance for contracted power by year-end to more than 3 gigawatts, up from a prior outlook of more than 2.5 gigawatts issued in November.

During the conference call, CFO Dada Alonso said the company expects to generate between $3 billion and $3.4 billion in sales this year, which she called a “prudent approach.” Analysts polled by Bloomberg were looking for revenues of nearly $4 billion in 2026.

Neoclouds need capital to keep fueling growth, and the potential for over-indebtedness as these aggressive build-outs continue remains a key risk for the cohort.

COO Ophir Nave said the company would be able to finance “60% or maybe even more of all of our capex needs in 2026” through cash flows. The overwhelming majority of the capex budget is dedicated to deploying GPUs within data centers, rather than power or other physical infrastructure.