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Luke Kawa

Applied Materials soars as Wall Street scrambles to boost price targets after “narrative-changing quarter”

Wall Street has fresh conviction that Applied Materials is a winner as the AI boom forces an expansion of chipmaking capacity.

The semicap company reported a top- and bottom-line beat, along with Q2 guidance that exceeded estimates, after the close on Thursday, sending shares sharply higher. Applied Materials is trading up double digits as of 8 a.m. ET.

“This is finally the narrative-changing quarter that we have been waiting for,” wrote Needham & Co. analyst Charles Shi, who boosted his price target to $440 from $390. “With AMAT shaking off the bad China narrative and returning to a strong AI-driven beat-and-raise cycle, we expect AMAT valuation gap vs. peers will narrow as AMAT should re-rate higher.”

The numbers speak for themselves, but the words on the conference call didn’t hurt either.

“Management’s decidedly more constructive tone on the call (relative to a more muted/conservative tone on the last call) we think was underpinned by a sharp acceleration in customer orders and activity levels in the quarter,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur, who lifted his price target to $400 from $260.

He spotlighted the strong outlook for its advanced packaging business given “AMAT’s #1 position in HBM where spending is inflecting higher as the absorption of previously shipped equipment concludes and additional capacity/capability is required amid burgeoning demand growth and customers’ rapid technology transitions (HBM3e > HBM4 > HBM4e and beyond).”

Other sell-side shops that took a more more optimistic view and upped their price targets include:

  • Keybanc, up to $450 from $380;

  • Barclays, up to $450 from $360;

  • Wells Fargo, up to $435 from $350;

  • Citi, up to $420 from $400;

  • Morgan Stanley, up to $420 from $364;

  • And Mizuho, up to $410 from $370.

“This is finally the narrative-changing quarter that we have been waiting for,” wrote Needham & Co. analyst Charles Shi, who boosted his price target to $440 from $390. “With AMAT shaking off the bad China narrative and returning to a strong AI-driven beat-and-raise cycle, we expect AMAT valuation gap vs. peers will narrow as AMAT should re-rate higher.”

The numbers speak for themselves, but the words on the conference call didn’t hurt either.

“Management’s decidedly more constructive tone on the call (relative to a more muted/conservative tone on the last call) we think was underpinned by a sharp acceleration in customer orders and activity levels in the quarter,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur, who lifted his price target to $400 from $260.

He spotlighted the strong outlook for its advanced packaging business given “AMAT’s #1 position in HBM where spending is inflecting higher as the absorption of previously shipped equipment concludes and additional capacity/capability is required amid burgeoning demand growth and customers’ rapid technology transitions (HBM3e > HBM4 > HBM4e and beyond).”

Other sell-side shops that took a more more optimistic view and upped their price targets include:

  • Keybanc, up to $450 from $380;

  • Barclays, up to $450 from $360;

  • Wells Fargo, up to $435 from $350;

  • Citi, up to $420 from $400;

  • Morgan Stanley, up to $420 from $364;

  • And Mizuho, up to $410 from $370.

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AI server cluster maker Penguin Solutions takes flight

Small-cap AI server cluster maker Penguin Solutions surged Thursday after posting better-than-expected Q2 revenue and profit numbers Wednesday after the close, along with an increase in full-year sales and profit guidance.

The company, which was known as Smart Global Holdings until July 2024, has positioned itself as a provider of “end-to-end AI infrastructure solutions.”

Its Advanced Computing division designs and sells computers, cabling, and cooling systems, the server racks and clusters of racks AI data centers need. Its other main division sells flash and DRAM memory products.

It’s a pretty small company, with a fully diluted market cap of just over $1 billion and roughly 2,900 employees, according to FactSet.

The stock is volatile. Penguin dove during last year’s tariff tantrum that followed “Liberation Day” in April. Then it turned tail and doubled through early October amid a surge of call options activity, which tends to reflect retail interest. From the October peak, it then plunged by about 50%, before Thursday’s renaissance.

For what it’s worth, call options activity in Penguin is pretty busy today, too — relatively speaking — with roughly 2,625 traded as of 1:15 p.m. ET. That’s the most since early January, when the company last reported quarterly numbers. The average volume over the previous 25 trading sessions is about 325 calls a day, FactSet data shows.

The company, which was known as Smart Global Holdings until July 2024, has positioned itself as a provider of “end-to-end AI infrastructure solutions.”

Its Advanced Computing division designs and sells computers, cabling, and cooling systems, the server racks and clusters of racks AI data centers need. Its other main division sells flash and DRAM memory products.

It’s a pretty small company, with a fully diluted market cap of just over $1 billion and roughly 2,900 employees, according to FactSet.

The stock is volatile. Penguin dove during last year’s tariff tantrum that followed “Liberation Day” in April. Then it turned tail and doubled through early October amid a surge of call options activity, which tends to reflect retail interest. From the October peak, it then plunged by about 50%, before Thursday’s renaissance.

For what it’s worth, call options activity in Penguin is pretty busy today, too — relatively speaking — with roughly 2,625 traded as of 1:15 p.m. ET. That’s the most since early January, when the company last reported quarterly numbers. The average volume over the previous 25 trading sessions is about 325 calls a day, FactSet data shows.

markets

Momentum returns to optics stocks as the release valve for AI optimism

Potentially imminent end to the war? Buy optics stocks.

Maybe not? Buy optics stocks anyway.

Effectively all the juice left in the AI trade is coming from optics (and memory) stocks. And the latter group is taking a bit of a breather today while the former continues to surge.

Shares of Ciena Corp., Lumentum, and Coherent are building on recent big gains and among the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 near midday, while Applied Optoelectronics is also surging on Thursday.

These companies all provide solutions that help information move around in data centers, and thus are key beneficiaries of the aggressive capex plans of hyperscalers. Nvidia has invested $2 billion apiece in Coherent and Lumentum in deals that also include purchase commitments.

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Space stocks rip during a topsy-turvy day for the equity market

Satellite-services-from-space stocks surged Thursday after reports that Amazon is in talks to buy Globalstar, which provides voice and connectivity services from its satellite network. It also can’t hurt that the general mood around space is ebullient, following the successful launch of Artemis II on Thursday.

Planet Labs and ViaSat also soared on the news.

The gains for EchoStar — seen as a backdoor play at pre-IPO SpaceX exposure — and Rocket Lab were more muted, perhaps because a deep-pocketed competitor like Jeff Bezos getting serious about space services could complicate the plans of the two largest commercial space launch companies.

Rocket Lab and SpaceX see launch services as key to their aspirations of being major providers of voice and data services from low-Earth orbit satellites.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX is the dominant provider of such services, and the early rumors on the company’s planned IPO — expected to be the largest ever — suggest the market is very excited about the prospects for the industry.

Elsewhere in the space stock world, Intuitive Machines — a maker of space infrastructure that provides services to NASA for lunar missions — also rose.

The gains for EchoStar — seen as a backdoor play at pre-IPO SpaceX exposure — and Rocket Lab were more muted, perhaps because a deep-pocketed competitor like Jeff Bezos getting serious about space services could complicate the plans of the two largest commercial space launch companies.

Rocket Lab and SpaceX see launch services as key to their aspirations of being major providers of voice and data services from low-Earth orbit satellites.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX is the dominant provider of such services, and the early rumors on the company’s planned IPO — expected to be the largest ever — suggest the market is very excited about the prospects for the industry.

Elsewhere in the space stock world, Intuitive Machines — a maker of space infrastructure that provides services to NASA for lunar missions — also rose.

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